Alex Wasilewski

We broke out yesterday on the downside. Now be respectful of 2 trends, the daily and the 4 hour trend. Fundamental context for day traders The weaker-than-expected payrolls print reinforces the cooling-labor narrative that began with soft ADP data earlier in the week. Markets are pricing lower odds of aggressive Fed tightening, which has supported equities this morning. Oil and yields remain secondary variables. Geopolitical developments (Hormuz/Middle East) continue to influence energy and...

We start with a narrow range. This means the market, including the institutions, are confused as to the next move. This tells us to be patient, wait for the break, then get aboard. We are overbought. Key drivers on August 5: Mixed economic data. ADP private payrolls rose only +44,000 in July (well below ~68–70k expectations and the prior 95k), signaling cooling labor momentum. ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 (slightly below the 54.5 forecast but still in expansion from 54.0 prior). Tech...

Earnings keep beating analyst expectations. I do expect us to top out next week, so enjoy the easy money on the buy side while it lasts. Previous day (Tuesday, August 4, 2026) recap: The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all-time high of 54,085.88, up 907.47 points (+1.71%). The S&P 500 rose ~1.79% to a record close and the Nasdaq Composite gained ~2.6%. YM (E-mini Dow) September 2026 (YMU26 / YM=F) tracked the strength. Prior settlement/previous close around 54,268; the...