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Kevin washed the bulls. The FOMC unanimously held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the statement was significantly shortened (removing much prior dovish language) and projections leaned more hawkish: officials signaled readiness to raise rates if inflation persists, with the dot plot showing potential for hikes (possibly as soon as later in 2026). Emphasis was placed on delivering price stability amid solid economic activity, strong productivi

Fed announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern. Don't expect a rate change. FOMC Decision (2:00 PM ET): Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% (≈97% probability per CME FedWatch). This is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Focus shifts to the dot plot, economic projections, and press conference tone. Markets are pricing in limited or no rate cuts for the rest of 2026, with some discussion of potential hikes if inflation remains sticky. Hawkish signals (stron

Fed announcement tomorrow. Market overbought yet not easy to find short trades. We stick with trend until it changes. Buy pullbacks. The Dow surged 468 points (+0.92%) to a record close of 51,671.03, also hitting a new all-time intraday high during the session. The catalyst was a big fundamental one — President Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran had reached a peace agreement, sending the Dow jumping as much as 700 points intraday. Oil cratered on the news, with front-mont

You don't need Jim Cramer to tell you that the US-Iran announcements are responsible for this rally. Only question is how much does the US have to pay this time. All numbers going forward will reference September contract. Sunday night/Monday pre-market (June 15, 2026) futures action: Strong gap higher on news of a US-Iran peace deal agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Dow futures jumped roughly +1% (around +500 points at times), with S&P futures +1.

We had one banker's flush trade long already before the open. Our job today is a couple more longs on pullbacks then be done for the week. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed sharply higher at 50,848.75, up 929.97 points (+1.86%). This represented a strong rebound from the previous day's heavy losses. Session action: Markets rallied on a relief bounce, with strength in industrials, financials, and select cyclicals. Chip/tech stocks also rebounded, aiding broader sent

If the Dow closes below 50200 today, it will turn the daily chart into a downtrend. We like shorting 200 point rallies today. Previous Day Recap (Wednesday, June 10, 2026) for Dow Futures (YM Jun '26): The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed sharply lower at 49,918.78, down 953 points (-1.87%). This marked one of the worst days of the year, driven by a combination of the May CPI report and escalating geopolitical tensions. Session action: Markets opened softer and sold o

SMF has increased today to 249. Our objective today is to short rallies. But wait until the momentum turns back down. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed modestly higher at around 50,786 (up ~0.2% or +86 points on the day in some reports, though it was mixed/choppy overall). Futures (YM) showed volatility, with the June contract settling near 50,909. Session action: Markets were volatile amid ongoing tech sector swings (Nasdaq underperformed) and lingering Middle Eas

Trend up to start but nearing resistance. The SMF has dropped today to 187, still plenty of opportunities to make money. US stock markets staged a partial recovery from Friday’s sharp selloff. Tech and semiconductor stocks rebounded as investors bought the dip after the brutal AI-related losses, though gains faded into the close. The session was mixed overall amid ongoing Middle East tensions (Iran-Israel flare-up and partial de-escalation signals) that kept oil elevated. Dow

A bit of a relief rally to the overdone selling. But look to sell into resistance. Previous day's recap (Friday, June 5, 2026): US equity markets sold off sharply on Friday following a much stronger-than-expected May jobs report (172k added vs. ~80-88k expected). This triggered a "good news is bad news" reaction, raising fears of hotter inflation and delayed or fewer Fed rate cuts, which sent Treasury yields higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed down ~695 points (-1.3%

Previous Day Recap (Thursday, June 4, 2026) for Dow Futures (YM 06-26): The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average surged +874.86 points (+1.73%) to close at a new record high of 51,561.93. It marked the index's 15th record close of the year. Futures (YMM26): The June contract tracked the strong cash gains, with solid performance amid sector rotation. It settled higher after trading in a range that reflected the broad recovery. Broader market: S&P 500 rose ~0.4%, while the Nasdaq

Early profit taking accelerated. We covered our shorts at exactly 50841 a 214 tick winner. The June contract followed the cash index lower, settling with a significant net loss. It traded weaker throughout the session amid rising geopolitical tensions. Broader market: S&P 500 fell ~0.7%, Nasdaq Composite dropped ~0.9%. All major indexes retreated from recent all-time highs. Escalating Mideast clashes (US-Iran tensions, threats to ceasefire, potential disruptions in the Strait

Expect sharp swings of 214 points up and down today. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,307.79, up +228.91 points (+0.45%). It hit a new all-time intraday high during the session. Futures (YMM26): The June contract settled higher, tracking the cash index strength. It recovered from early weakness tied to geopolitical headlines and closed near the highs of the day. Broader market: S&P 500 closed at a record 7,609.78 (+0.13%), and Nasdaq Composite edged up sligh

Profit-taking day so far. Good institutional buy orders at 50739, sell orders at 51341. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed modestly higher at around 51,079, up roughly +46 points (+0.09%). It traded in a relatively tight range after recovering from early weakness. Futures action (YMM26): The June contract settled near 51,134 (exact settlement varies slightly by source). It traded a range of approximately 50,999 – 51,384, opening around 51,073–51,128. It finished the

Happy June. Let's not say hurricane season. Market in a low volume choppy session to begin. First support stands at 50894. Resistance at 51453. Took first short on a break of 51310 then long at the SMF low 51184. Remember to wait 6 minute after the open to find new direction. Previous Day Recap (Friday, May 29, 2026) for Dow Futures / YM 06-26: The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high of 51,032.46, up +363.49 points (+0.72%). This marked the first c

Sleepy market to start. Buyers want it lower to go long; Bears want it higher to go short. Only scalp traders don't care. All week, the market has had sharp moves down at least 200 points and then the follow-through buying. Expect no difference today. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,668.97, up about +24.69 points from the prior close (roughly +0.05%). It traded in a range roughly between 50,314 and 50,764. The session was relatively quiet and mixed. The Do

Previous Day Recap (Wednesday, May 27, 2026) for Dow Futures / YM 06-26: The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new all-time high of 50,644.28, up +182.60 points (+0.36%). It also hit an intraday record high. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records too, but with much smaller gains (+0.02% and +0.07% respectively). Futures (YM) settled around the 50,728 area (exact settlement varies slightly by source, but cash close aligns closely). The session was relatively quie

Dow needs to hold support at 50486. 60 Minute trend still up. If that trend turns down we will begin shorting heavily. U.S. markets reopened after the Memorial Day holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 50,461.68, down 118 points (-0.23%). It traded in a range roughly 50,356 to 50,785. The index showed some profit-taking after recent strength near the 50,000–51,000 zone. Dow Futures (YM June 2026 contract) settled around 50,547 on May 26, with intraday trading be

Momentum slowing but trend stays higher. There is still a lot of cash on the sidelines. Money managers are stuck trying to find investment bargains. We buy pullbacks. Today's pullback number is 211. Dow Futures (YM June 2026 contract) saw overnight/electronic trading activity. On or around May 22 (last full session settlement), the June contract settled around 50,662, up roughly +0.56% that day. Futures traded in a range showing modest strength, with levels pushing toward the

Have a great Memorial Day Weekend. Monday the market closes at 12:00 Central For today we want to buy a 187 point pullback. Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET Christopher Waller Speaks 10:00 AM ET Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< DATE: 5/22/2026 TIME: 9:27 AM HIGH: 50470 LOW: 49774 CLOSE: 50379 PIVOT: 50208 SUPPORT: 50388 RESISTANCE: 50896 SWING MAGNITUDE: 187 TIME OF COMMENT: 9:27 AM COMMENT: For today's

Buy a 229 point pullback in the Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (cash index) had a strong rebound session, rising +645 points (+1.31%) to close at 50,009.35. This marked a solid recovery after recent pressure from rising bond yields and oil prices. The S&P 500 gained about +1.1% and the Nasdaq +1.5%, with the move supported by easing yields, a pullback in oil prices, and anticipation ahead of Nvidia's earnings. Momentum notes: Overbought conditions exist on longer frame