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We broke out yesterday on the downside. Now be respectful of 2 trends, the daily and the 4 hour trend. Fundamental context for day traders The weaker-than-expected payrolls print reinforces the cooling-labor narrative that began with soft ADP data earlier in the week. Markets are pricing lower odds of aggressive Fed tightening, which has supported equities this morning. Oil and yields remain secondary variables. Geopolitical developments (Hormuz/Middle East) continue to influ

We start with a narrow range. This means the market, including the institutions, are confused as to the next move. This tells us to be patient, wait for the break, then get aboard. We are overbought. Key drivers on August 5: Mixed economic data. ADP private payrolls rose only +44,000 in July (well below ~68–70k expectations and the prior 95k), signaling cooling labor momentum. ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 (slightly below the 54.5 forecast but still in expansion from 54.0

Earnings keep beating analyst expectations. I do expect us to top out next week, so enjoy the easy money on the buy side while it lasts. Previous day (Tuesday, August 4, 2026) recap: The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh all-time high of 54,085.88, up 907.47 points (+1.71%). The S&P 500 rose ~1.79% to a record close and the Nasdaq Composite gained ~2.6%. YM (E-mini Dow) September 2026 (YMU26 / YM=F) tracked the strength. Prior settlement/previous close aroun

A repeat of yesterday on earnings blowouts for Caterpillar and Palantir. Don't change the strategy that is working. First buying support comes in around 53770 followed by 53620. In an overbought market -- do not chase. Overnight / This Morning (Tuesday, August 4, 2026 ~8:00–8:15 AM CDT) Outlook for YM Sep ’26 (YMU26) E-mini Dow September 2026 futures are trading higher in the Globex session. Recent CME and delayed quotes show levels around 53,900–53,970, up roughly +600 to +

The market continues it's power move up. I agree that market is over-bought. Wall Street knows it, but they say, "Compared to what?" Where will you put your money to beat inflation? Stocks. We buy the SMF pullback. Amazon surged ~15% after strong Q2 results highlighted accelerating AWS/cloud growth and higher AI-related capex guidance. This delivered one of its largest market-cap gains and helped soothe broader AI-spending concerns (building on Microsoft’s positive reaction e

End of the month window dressing. Funds tend to dump losers and buy winners. Market trying to break resistance today. Two-way trading. The cash Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,208.06, up +613.92 points (+1.19%). The S&P 500 rose ~1.7% to 7,437.63 and the Nasdaq Composite surged ~2.8% to 25,122.18, snapping a six-day losing streak. Chip and semiconductor stocks led (PHLX Semiconductor Index +~8%), with strength in names like Micron, Applied Materials, and Intel. Micr

As usual, the market overreacted and is trying to recover. Support is good at 51690. If that is breached today we are looking at a Dow 51200. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,153.18 points lower, or 2.19%, at 51,594.14 — its worst decline since April 2025. The S&P 500 slid 1.52% to 7,316.15, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.74% to 24,442.94, ending the session more than 10% off its all-time high (correction territory). The trigger: the Fed voted to hold rates steady,

The market should recover because Iran wants to make a deal according to Donald Trump. Iran is sending their top negotiators: Monty Hall, Frank Abagnale, and Pinocchio to Washington. A secondary factor for prices today is the Fed announcement at 2:00 PM. Expected tone is hawkish. Yesterday (Tuesday, July 28) recap: The Dow had its best day of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 537.24 points, or 1.03%, to close at 52,747.32, still short of its July 6 record of 53

Fed Meeting tomorrow. We want to go long again on a pullback. Next support is 52640 then 52543. The Dow was the outperformer, rising 0.51% to 52,210 as lower oil prices boosted blue chips, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7,413, breaking a four-session losing streak, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18% to 24,932 on semiconductor weakness. Gold rose 0.28% to $4,081.37, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65%, consumer defensive and communication stocks led gains, while

We start with a gap-up strong rally. What hurts traders on a day like this is chasing the market. If you can avoid chasing, profits are a breeze. This Morning's Tone (Monday, July 27) A much bigger, cleaner risk-on move is underway. Dow futures are up about 1% (some reports show +0.67% to +1.2% depending on the check-in time), S&P futures are up roughly 0.8–0.9%, and Nasdaq-100 futures have jumped 1.3–1.4%, driven by one dominant headline: market sentiment got a lift over the

Earnings announcements continue to provide volatility. The short term pattern will resume agreement with the daily when we trade below 52043 - the daily pivot. Remember, earnings rumors can cause sudden price moves regardless of the short term trends so dont forget about reasonable stops. Yesterday's Recap (Thursday, July 23) It was a sharp risk-off day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 506.93 points (-0.97%) to close at 51,711.65, the S&P 500 dropped 1.21% to 7,408.30,

We stated yesterday that a break of the 30 minute opening range of 52375 would open a floodgate of selling. And it did. We are short. That is the swing trader action. Now for the scalpers. The Dow finished nearly flat, down 0.01% to 52,218.58, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.14% to 7,498.96 and the Nasdaq slid 0.57% to 25,690.90, with small caps hit hardest as the Russell 2000 fell 0.92%. Oil kept climbing, with Brent settling at $94.07/barrel (briefly topping $95) after the 11th

Oversold bounce tests resistance. Yesterday's Recap (Tuesday, July 21) The Dow staged a solid rebound from Monday's selloff, gaining 384 points (+0.74%) to close at 52,223, led by 3M (+7.60%), UnitedHealth (+3.39%), and Caterpillar (+2.91%), while Boeing (-2.25%), Sherwin-Williams (-1.87%), and Alphabet (-1.64%) lagged. The broader move was driven by a chip-stock revival, with Nvidia climbing almost 2% after taking a stake in neocloud provider Nebius, and tech optimism helped

The daily chart has confirmed our downtrend. That means we take more short trades on good sell signals. Yesterday's Recap (Monday, July 20) The cash Dow closed down 307.16 points (-0.59%) at 51,839.26. It was a choppy session — the Dow was down all day, with just 3 of the top 10 index components in the green at the close. Chip stock momentum from the prior week's rebound faded, while oil prices rose again. The broader tape saw a rebound in tech being offset by renewed geopoli

As mentioned Friday, the daily trend is turning down. That will make for more volatility. Good support this morning at 52410. Resistance at 52600. If we take out 52223 today it will confirm the daily DOWN TREND in effect and we will mainly be shorting rallies. Use these levels for your trading. E-mini Dow futures (YMU26): Tracked the cash index closely, with pressure from AI/chip-related weakness offsetting gains elsewhere. Broader market: S&P 500 down ~0.5%, Nasdaq weaker (~

The Dow weakness is accelerating. Big support at 52248 needs to hold. Technical Analysis (day trading focus): Recent range: Futures have traded roughly 52,000–53,600 over recent weeks, with support near 52,200–52,500 and resistance around 52,800–53,100 (recent highs). Moving Averages: Mixed signals on shorter timeframes (e.g., some short-term MAs showing sell pressure recently, but longer-term bullish). Price is generally above key longer-term averages, supporting an uptrend

Sloppy uptrend to start. The best strategy on a day like today is to wait for a sell signal that fails. The shorts who lose will provide good profits for those who take the opposite side. Dispersion effect: Low VIX alongside high single-stock volatility (common recently) means the index (Dow/S&P) can stay calm while individual names swing wildly. This has supported Dow resilience amid tech rotation. Intermarket watch: VIX often moves with the US Dollar and bond yields. Rising

We start with a narrow trading range. That means range bound trading for the first hour. You can make good money trading that range--just be aware of it and be willing to do counter trend trades. Fundamental View for Day Traders Calendar: Mid-week data (e.g., housing/inflation metrics or Fed-related comments) could provide direction. Earnings season rotation remains supportive for Dow components. Macro drivers: Sentiment tied to interest rate expectations, USD movement, and r

Made most of our money already on fading the 8:30 Report. Wait for the first 15 minutes to determine what the market will do in the next hour. Iran and oil back in focus. If we close below 52400 it will signify weakness for the next month. Fundamental View for Day Traders Calendar: Relatively light early, but watch for any retail sales, inflation ticks, or Fed speaker comments that could influence rate expectations. Earnings rotation continues to support Dow components. Macro

SMF has come down. Expect more range-bound trading. This will persist until we can break out above 53650 or below 52300. Friday Recap (July 10, 2026) for /YMU26 (Sep '26 Dow E-mini): Price action: The contract opened around the 52,700–52,800 area in premarket and traded in a relatively choppy but modestly positive range during the session. It closed the day near 52,800–52,900 (exact settlement depends on final tick, but futures held the higher end of the recent consolidation)