Day-Trading Scenarios for Dec 18, 2025

You only need two good trades for the day to make a great living. Today rewarded the early risers.

Our first trade was a short at 48377 where we rode it down to 48297 to reverse to long in anticipation of a favorable CPI. Late arriving traders were of course left out. Treat this like a businesss. You don't run a five-star restaurant and open an hour late because you wanted to watch tv.

The primary catalyst this morning is the delayed November 2025 CPI report (released at 8:30 a.m. ET), which came in cooler than expected:

• Headline CPI: +2.7% year-over-year (vs. consensus ~3.1%).

• Core CPI (ex-food/energy): +2.6% YoY (vs. ~3.0% expected).

This softer inflation reading—potentially influenced by data collection distortions from the prior government shutdown—reinforces a "soft landing" narrative, boosting expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 (now pricing in more than the previously anticipated two quarter-point reductions). Lower yields and a weaker dollar are supporting risk assets.

• Strong Micron Technology earnings and guidance (shares +13% premarket) are lifting AI/semiconductor sentiment, aiding broader rebound after recent tech selloffs.

• Year-end seasonal tailwinds and dip-buying in thin liquidity.

Our next upside target for long traders is 48610. Buy pullbacks.

CPI

 8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims

 8:30 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

 8:30 AM ET

Current Account

 8:30 AM ET

E-Commerce Retail Sales

 10:00 AM ET

Leading Indicators

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

Treasury Buyback Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

52-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

2-Yr FRN Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

2-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

5-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

5-Yr TIPS Auction

 1:00 PM ET

Treasury Buyback Results

 2:00 PM ET

Treasury International Capital

 4:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet

 4:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 12/18/2025

TIME: 8:57 AM

HIGH: 48749

LOW: 48207

CLOSE: 48240

PIVOT: 48399

SUPPORT: 48164

RESISTANCE: 48736

SWING MAGNITUDE: 227

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:57 AM