Alex Wasilewski

Kevin washed the bulls. The FOMC unanimously held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the statement was significantly shortened (removing much prior dovish language) and projections leaned more hawkish: officials signaled readiness to raise rates if inflation persists, with the dot plot showing potential for hikes (possibly as soon as later in 2026). Emphasis was placed on delivering price stability amid solid economic activity, strong productivity/capital...

Fed announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern. Don't expect a rate change. FOMC Decision (2:00 PM ET): Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% (≈97% probability per CME FedWatch). This is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Focus shifts to the dot plot, economic projections, and press conference tone. Markets are pricing in limited or no rate cuts for the rest of 2026, with some discussion of potential hikes if inflation remains sticky. Hawkish signals (stronger language on...

Fed announcement tomorrow. Market overbought yet not easy to find short trades. We stick with trend until it changes. Buy pullbacks. The Dow surged 468 points (+0.92%) to a record close of 51,671.03, also hitting a new all-time intraday high during the session. The catalyst was a big fundamental one — President Trump announced that the U.S. and Iran had reached a peace agreement, sending the Dow jumping as much as 700 points intraday. Oil cratered on the news, with front-month WTI crude...