Day-Trading Scenarios for Nov 05, 2026

YM Morning Report — Thursday, November 5, 2026

1. Prior Session Recap

YM opened Tuesday evening at 51,808 and fell to the session low of 51,416 at 10:07 pm as midterm results came in. From there it rallied all night and reached 53,074 at 9:00 am. The cash open came in near 52,972. A quick stop-run to 52,904 at 9:32 reversed hard, and the opening 30 minutes ran to 53,185 at 9:45, a 281-point range. Buyers held control through the morning. A midday dip to 53,376 just after noon was bought, and the afternoon trend carried YM to the session high of 53,631 at 3:36 pm. The cash close was near 53,509 and the settle was 53,503.

Cash indexes posted the biggest post-midterm rally in 44 years:

Dow: 53,356.12, +1,569.40 (+3.03%)

S&P 500: 7,688.62, +119.70 (+1.58%)

Nasdaq: 25,736.51, +364.50 (+1.44%)

Overnight, YM dipped to 53,518 at 7:07 pm, then climbed steadily. London pushed it from 53,646 (3:04 am) to the overnight high of 53,913 at 6:25 am. YM pulled back to 53,736 at 7:36, retested 53,909 at 8:43, and has eased off since. It is now at 53,822.

2. Fundamental Picture

Wednesday’s surge came from the Democratic sweep of the House and Senate. The market read divided government as lowering the risk of disruptive policy changes. A collapse in crude added fuel: Brent fell about $10 to below $100 on the election and signs of U.S.–Iran diplomacy. Energy was the only real laggard. Big Tech Dow names Amazon, Microsoft and Apple led the gains. This morning the rotation favors the Dow. Dow futures are up about 0.4%, S&P futures are roughly flat to down 0.1%, and Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.7%. Chip and data-center names are under pressure. Qualcomm is down about 10% premarket after weak smartphone-chip sales, and concern is growing about local opposition to data-center expansion.

Oil has fallen for a fourth straight day, with Brent near $94 and WTI near $88, on hopes of a deal to end the Iran war. The 10-year yield has eased to about 4.89%, and the VIX is subdued near 16.8. Challenger job cuts for October were down 71% from a year ago. Friday’s October jobs report is the week’s main event. No major data is scheduled inside the 9:30–10:00 window. At least three Fed officials speak during the day, including Richmond’s Barkin. Earnings are out from Duke Energy, ConocoPhillips, Airbnb and Toyota; there are no Dow components on the morning slate. Likely tone: constructive for the Dow, driven by lower oil, lower yields and rotation out of tech. After a 3% day, expect two-way consolidation and a fight to hold the overnight highs rather than a straight-line follow-through.

3. Technical Picture

Daily Pivots (H 53,631 / L 51,416 / Settle 53,503; range 2,215)

Level Price

R3 57,280

R2 55,065

R1 54,284

Pivot 52,850

S1 52,069

S2 50,635

S3 48,420

The pivots are unusually wide because of yesterday’s 2,215-point range. R1 and S1 sit well outside the normal opening reach, so intraday structure matters more today.

Key References

Reference Price Time

Overnight high 53,913 6:25 am

8:43 retest high 53,909 8:43 am

Pre-open shelf 53,803–53,820 8:00–9:05 lows

15-min 20 SMA 53,812

7:36 pullback low 53,736 7:36 am

4–5 am shelf 53,703–53,711

60-min 20 SMA 53,676

London swing start 53,646 3:04 am

Prior day high 53,631 3:36 pm

Overnight low 53,518 7:07 pm

Prior day low 51,416 10:07 pm Tue

Trend

60-minute: 5 SMA 53,833 > 20 SMA 53,676 → up.

15-minute: 5 SMA 53,855 > 20 SMA 53,812 → up, but the 5 has rolled over from 53,863 and price is sitting on the 20.

Bias: Price is about 970 points above the pivot and both timeframes are aligned up, so the plan is long on pullbacks. Conviction is moderate: the 15-minute is flattening, yesterday’s rally was outsized, and Nasdaq weakness could cap upside.

Framework: The trend is up, so the opening stop-run should come down. First zone: 53,800–53,815, the pre-open shelf and 15-min 20 SMA. Deeper zone: 53,705–53,740, the 7:36 low and 4–5 am shelf. London’s swing ran up from 53,646, so their profit-taking can pull price back toward that start. Invalidation: sustained trade below 53,646 cancels the long bias. Below 53,518 (the overnight low), the trend is broken.

4. Trade Plan

With-Trend Long A With-Trend Long B (deeper) Counter-Trend Short

Zone 53,800–53,815 53,705–53,740 53,905–53,920 (overnight high)

Trigger 1-min stoch turns up from below 20 1-min stoch turns up from below 20 1-min stoch turns down from above 80

Entry 53,810 53,725 53,910

Stop 53,760 53,675 53,960

Target 1 53,905 53,830 53,860

Target 2 54,055 (measured move) 53,980 (measured move) 53,840 (~70-pt counter move)

Management: Once 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it. The counter-trend short is valid only if the overnight high rejects. A clean break and hold above 53,913 cancels it and favors Long A on a retest of 53,905–53,915 from above.

5. Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 am range)

Overnight high: 53,913 (6:25 am)

Overnight low: 53,518 (7:07 pm)

Overnight range: 395 points

SMF = 254 points

London swing: up 267 points, from 53,646 (3:04 am) to 53,913 (6:25 am).

Measured moves

Primary (stop-run low, then trend resumes): 53,800 + 254 = 54,054. From a deeper run to 53,725, the target is 53,980.

Alternate (failure at the overnight high): 53,913 − 254 = 53,659, which lines up with the London swing start at 53,646.