Day-Trading Scenarios for Nov 03, 2026

YM Morning Report — Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Monday, Nov 2)

YM made its session low of 51970 at 6:05 pm Sunday, right after the reopen, and climbed steadily overnight. The day session opened at 52293. After a dip to 52263 in the first minute, buyers drove a strong opening rally to 52499 by 10:00, a 236-point opening range. YM made the session high of 52581 at 10:28 ET. That was the peak. The market faded through the afternoon, accelerated lower after 3:00 pm, and settled at 52133, near the day-session low.

The cash Dow rose 213.67 points (+0.4%) to 51,983.98, helped by a 7.6% drop in Brent crude. Tech lagged again: the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,541.40 and the Nasdaq 1.1% to 25,164.32 as Nvidia reversed from an early gain. The Nasdaq is now in a technical correction.

Overnight, YM touched 52186 early in the evening, then slid steadily to 51631 at 7:03 am. A sharp 458-point rebound carried it to 52089 at 8:33. It is now at 51935.

Fundamental Picture

Today is Election Day. Results come in this evening, after the close, and prediction markets and polls both favor Democrats to win the House and Senate. Uncertainty is keeping traders cautious, and Dow futures are about 0.4% lower. Oil has bounced back: Brent is up about 1.7% to over $106 after Monday’s 7.6% drop, on reports that the U.S. and Iran remain far apart on a peace deal despite signals that both are open to diplomacy. Apple, a Dow component, is lower premarket even though revenue grew 12% and earnings beat, because Greater China revenue missed. Palantir beat and raised its outlook but is also lower, a sign of how fragile AI sentiment has become.

JOLTS job openings and September factory orders come out at 10:00 ET, at the end of the opening 30-minute window. AMD reports after the close, and the reaction will depend as much on its fourth-quarter guidance as on the quarter itself. The 10-year yield is near 4.90% and the VIX is about 20.5. Expect a cautious, two-sided session with defensive positioning ahead of the election results. Rallies may struggle while oil firms and Dow components like Apple trade lower.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (52581 + 51970 + 52133) ÷ 3 = 52228

Level Price

R3 53450

R2 52839

R1 52486

Pivot 52228

S1 51875

S2 51617

S3 51006

Key references

Reference Price

Overnight high 52186

Pre-open rebound high 52089

60-minute 20 SMA ≈51987

Overnight low 51631 (with S2 at 51617)

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈51845) is well below the 20 SMA (≈51987). Trend is down.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈51914) is above the 20 SMA (≈51834). This is a short-term rebound inside the larger downtrend.

Bias: Price is nearly 300 points below the pivot and the hourly trend is down, so the primary bias is short on rallies. London traders are long from the 51631 low with a fast 450-point gain. Their profit-taking near the NY open adds downside pressure once the opening stop-run finishes. The first place to sell is 51985–52000, where the 60-minute 20 SMA sits. A deeper squeeze would run into 52180–52190, where the overnight high sits just below the pivot. Support is S1 at 51875, then the 51617–51631 shelf (S2 and the overnight low).

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it. Take partial profits at Target 1 today given the large SMF, and watch the 10:00 data release.

With-trend #1: 60-minute 20 SMA short. Short a pop into 51985–52000 when the 1-minute stochastic is above 80 and turning down.

Entry: 51990

Stop: 52040

Target 1: 51875 (S1)

Target 2: 51688 (one full Swing Magnitude Factor off the high)

With-trend #2: overnight-high short. If the opening squeeze stops out trade #1 and carries into 52180–52190, re-short there, just under the pivot.

Entry: 52185

Stop: 52235

Target 1: 51990

Target 2: 51883 (one full SMF off the high, at S1)

Counter-trend: shelf reclaim long. If the open flushes into 51617–51631 and quickly recovers back above it, buy the reclaim.

Entry: 51630

Stop: 51580

Target 1: 51760

Target 2: 51932 (one full SMF off the low)

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 302 points

The overnight range is 555 points, from 52186 at 7:25 pm to 51631 at 7:03 am. If YM breaks above 52186 or below 51631 before the open, add 3 points to the SMF for every 10 points of new range. London’s swing was 458 points up, from 51631 to 52089.

Measured-move targets:

If the opening stop-run peaks near 51990, one full 302-point swing down projects to 51688, just above the overnight low.

If the squeeze reaches the overnight high near 52185, a full swing down projects to 51883, right at S1.