Day-Trading Scenarios for Nov 04, 2026

YM Morning Report — Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Tuesday, Nov 3)

YM made its session high of 52186 at 7:25 pm Monday and its low of 51631 at 7:03 am Tuesday, both before the day session began. The day session opened at 51900. A pop to 51956 at 9:32 quickly failed, and a flush to 51711 at 9:49 completed a 245-point opening range. Buyers recovered to a day-session high of 52031 at 11:18. The rest of the session held between 51880 and 52000 as traders waited for the election results, and YM settled at 51895.

The cash Dow fell 197 points (−0.4%) to 51,786.72 after Apple warned that rising memory-chip costs could squeeze its margins. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8% as Nvidia and other AI names rebounded.

Election night produced the biggest overnight move in months. YM slid to 51416 at 10:07 pm as early returns came in, then rallied all night as Democratic wins piled up. It crossed 52000 before 3:00 am, reached 52666 by 6:00 and made a new high of 53074 at 9:00 am, 1,658 points off the low. It is now at 53045, above R3.

Fundamental Picture

Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate. Markets are treating divided government as a relief: Dow futures jumped by roughly 1,100 points (about +1.4%) overnight, S&P 500 futures gained about 1% and Nasdaq futures about 0.5%. The view on the Street is that a Democratic Congress checks sweeping policy changes, while a Senate majority short of 60 votes and the presidential veto prevent sweeping changes in the other direction. Defense stocks are lower on the possibility that the war with Iran will be scaled back, and wind-energy names are higher. Oil is easing, with Brent down about 1% to $102 and WTI near $95, which helps the inflation outlook. European markets are up 1.3–1.6%.

There are still risks. ING noted that the administration could renew tariff and NATO spending disputes, and Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.4% on concerns that a Democratic Congress could slow the buildout of AI data centers. The October jobs report comes Friday. After a 1,658-point overnight swing, expect an unusually wide and fast open. The trend is strongly up, but at this height early profit-taking is likely before buyers return.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (52186 + 51631 + 51895) ÷ 3 = 51904

Level Price

R3 53014

R2 52459

R1 52177

Pivot 51904

S1 51622

S2 51349

S3 50794

Key references

Reference Price

Overnight high 53074

R3 53014

8:00 am consolidation shelf 52700–52805

15-minute 20 SMA ≈52708

60-minute 20 SMA ≈52103

London starting price 52028

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52841) is far above the 20 SMA (≈52103). Trend is strongly up.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52950) is above the 20 SMA (≈52708). Trend is up.

Bias: Both timeframes are aligned up and price is more than 1,100 points above the pivot, already through R3. The primary bias is long on pullbacks, without chasing. London traders are long from 52028 with more than 1,000 points of profit, so their profit-taking at the NY open could be heavy. As the opening stop-run plays out, a dip into R3 at 53005–53020 is the first place to buy. A deeper flush would test the 52740–52760 shelf, where the 8:00 am consolidation and the 15-minute 20 SMA sit. If YM breaks below 52700, the long bias is off and a deeper retracement is likely.

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it. With a historically large SMF, take partial profits at Target 1. Targets below use half the SMF (316 points), because the full SMF is an outer bound on a day like this.

With-trend #1: R3 retest long. Buy a dip into 53005–53020 when the 1-minute stochastic turns up from below 20.

Entry: 53015

Stop: 52965

Target 1: 53150

Target 2: 53331 (half SMF off the entry)

With-trend #2: shelf long. If the opening flush stops out trade #1 and reaches 52740–52760, buy there.

Entry: 52750

Stop: 52700

Target 1: 52900

Target 2: 53066 (half SMF, back to the overnight high)

Counter-trend: overnight-high fade short. If YM tests 53070–53080 and stalls with the 1-minute stochastic above 80 and turning down, short for the typical ~70-point pullback.

Entry: 53075

Stop: 53125

Target 1: 53005

Target 2: 52935

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 632 points

The overnight range is 1,658 points, from 51416 at 10:07 pm to 53074 at 9:00 am, the second-widest in the past year. If YM breaks above 53074 or below 51416 before the open, add 3 points to the SMF for every 10 points of new range. London’s swing was 1,046 points up, from 52028 to 53074.

When the overnight move is this large, much of it is a one-way trend rather than back-and-forth trading. The opening 30 minutes may not cover the full SMF, so treat 632 as an outer bound and half of it, about 316 points, as the working target.

Measured-move targets:

If the opening stop-run bottoms near 52750, half an SMF up projects to 53066, and a full SMF up projects to 53382.

If the R3 zone near 53015 holds as the low, a half-SMF up projects to 53331.