Happy New Year 2026

Wishing all a wonderful 2026. Let's make the most of it.

Traders will fight to keep the Dow above 48455. If we close below 48455 we will begin 2026 in a down trend. 90% of the fund managers I spoke with over the last 2 weeks feel that Dow 50,000 is almost a certainty by the end of January, and that scares me.

For today, since volume will be light, pick up 2 to 3 quick trades and call it an early day. I am looking for decent shorting opportunities into resistance.

The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (December 2025) shows average cash allocations at a record low of 3.3% of AUM (down from 3.7% in November and lower than levels seen in prior years, e.g., around 4-5% during more cautious periods like early 2025). This is the lowest in the survey's history and well below the long-term average (typically 4-5%+ when sentiment is balanced).

Historically, cash below 4% has often triggered contrarian "sell" signals, as it indicates managers are fully invested with limited "dry powder" for buying dips.

State Street's institutional indicators (through November 2025) show equities as the preferred asset class, with only minor inflows to cash amid strong risk appetite.

7-Yr Note Settlement

20-Yr Bond Settlement

Jobless Claims

 8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 10:30 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

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6-Week Bill Announcement

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6-Month Bill Announcement

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4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

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4-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

FOMC Minutes

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SIFMA Early Close

 2:00 PM ET

Farm Prices

 3:00 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 12/31/2025

TIME: 9:16 AM

HIGH: 48774

LOW: 48573

CLOSE: 48650

PIVOT: 48666

SUPPORT: 48455

RESISTANCE: 48884

SWING MAGNITUDE: 175

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:16 AM