Day-Trading Scenarios for Aug 26, 2026

Starts the day with no trend, just spikes.

We took only two pre-opening trades; both good winners. A long at 53651 and a short before the reports at 53760.

Our strategy is that we made most of the profits before the open so the best idea is to keep the green.

Prior Day Recap — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

The Dow logged its third straight winning session, adding 160.24 points (+0.30%) to close at 53,577.40. Day's range was 53,386.37 (low) to 53,675.32 (high) — about a 289-point spread. The S&P 500 added 0.32% to 7,677.28 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.66% to 26,151.30 as chip stocks rallied ahead of Nvidia's earnings. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 7bp to 4.625%, and WTI crude dropped more than 3%, both of which took pressure off equities.

This morning's key catalyst has already landed: core PCE for July came in at 3.3% y/y, in line with expectations and unchanged from June, which keeps the Fed in a wait-and-see posture heading into Jackson Hole rather than forcing a hawkish repricing. That's why futures are sitting essentially flat pre-open — the number removed a source of uncertainty without giving a clear directional push. The bigger swing factor for the session is Nvidia's earnings, due after today's close; with chip names having led Tuesday's rally, positioning ahead of that print could add some chop to the tape into the afternoon.

Broader backdrop remains constructive: the Dow is within roughly 2% of its 52-week/all-time high (54,884), yields have been drifting lower off their recent spike, oil is falling (disinflationary for input costs), and the VIX is sitting in the low-15s — a low-fear reading consistent with a market that's grinding higher rather than one bracing for a shock. That said, low volatility readings after a multi-day win streak are also a classic setup for a mean-reversion air pocket, which is worth keeping in mind for the counter-trend idea below.

27-Minute Swing Magnitude Forecast

Using the last 10 sessions' daily ranges (avg ≈ 343 points) and scaling by the square root of time (27 min ÷ 390-min session), the expected swing magnitude per 27-minute cycle works out to roughly:

343 × √(27/390) ≈ 90 points

So plan for average 27-minute swings in the ~85–95 point range today under normal conditions — expect that to expand around the 8:30 PCE digestion window (already past) and again into/after the Nvidia print this afternoon, and to compress in the quieter late-morning/lunch hours.

Counter-trend Short — Fade candidate near round-number resistance at 53,700–53,725 or on a failed breakout above 53,675, especially if the market goes quiet ahead of the Nvidia print this afternoon; target back to the pivot (53,546) with a tight stop above the day's high.

MBA Mortgage Applications

 7:00 AM ET

Durable Goods Orders

 8:30 AM ET

GDP

 8:30 AM ET

Personal Income and Outlays

 8:30 AM ET

Corporate Profits

 8:30 AM ET

Retail Inventories (Advance)

 8:30 AM ET

Wholesale Inventories (Advance)

 8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 10:30 AM ET

Survey of Business Uncertainty

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

2-Yr FRN Note Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Thomas Barkin Speaks

 11:45 AM ET

5-Yr Note Auction

 1:00 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 8/26/2026

TIME: 9:23 AM

HIGH: 53797

LOW: 53426

CLOSE: 53645

PIVOT: 53623

SUPPORT: 53388

RESISTANCE: 53888

SWING MAGNITUDE: 227

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:23 AM

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