Day-Trading Scenarios for Aug 28, 2026
Looks like we will be doing the opening range break out.
First support comes in at 53610.
Prior Day Recap — Thursday, August 27, 2026
The Dow underperformed its peers, slipping modestly (~50 points, -0.1%) even as the S&P 500 added 0.4% and the Nasdaq jumped 0.9%, extending Wednesday's Nvidia-fueled rally. The AI trade carried the broader tape — Nvidia's blowout earnings and bullish outlook, plus reported acquisition talks around Hugging Face, kept tech/semis bid — but the Dow's more value-heavy composition left it lagging. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said from Jackson Hole that inflation remains "stubborn and sticky," reinforcing a cautious Fed tone into today's headline event.
YM futures (per your feed): High 53,811 / Low 53,369 / Settle 53,621 — a 442-point range, the widest of the last three sessions.
Fundamental Picture
The whole session today revolves around one event: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole address at 10:00 AM ET. Markets are looking for clarity on the Fed's rate path after his stance at the last meeting left traders confused, and officials remain divided — some (like Schmid yesterday) leaning hawkish on sticky inflation, others open to easing. Futures are mixed and thin ahead of the speech: Dow futures are up modestly (~+0.2%, roughly +90 points), S&P futures are flat, and Nasdaq futures are actually giving back a bit of Wednesday/Thursday's Nvidia-driven gains (-0.1% to -0.3%). Treasury yields are little changed but sitting near multi-year highs, so any hawkish surprise from Warsh has real room to move rates — and futures — quickly in either direction.
Stock-specific noise is adding some cross-currents: PayPal is down sharply (~15%) premarket after Stripe/Advent abandoned their takeover pursuit, and Marvell fell on disappointing margin guidance, while Gap surged on a leadership change. None of that moves the Dow much directly, but it's a reminder that today's tape is more headline-driven and two-sided than trend-driven — classic Fed-speech positioning, where the real move likely comes at or after 10 AM rather than at the open.
Technical Picture
Daily pivot (YM H+L+Settle ÷ 3):(53,811 + 53,369 + 53,621) ÷ 3 = 53,600.3
Current price of 53,725 is trading about 125 points above the pivot — a bullish tilt heading into the Warsh speech, with the pivot now the key support level to watch on any pullback.
Trend read (60-min / 15-min, 5 & 20 MA): Price is holding well above pivot after a wide 442-point range session Thursday, which typically keeps the 5-period MA above the 20-period on both timeframes as long as the pivot holds. Given the binary nature of the 10 AM catalyst, confirm your actual MA alignment before entering — a Fed-speech session can chop through moving averages quickly in the run-up even if the broader trend is intact.
Trade Ideas
With-trend Long #1 — Pullback entry toward the pivot (53,600) on the 15-min chart pre-10 AM, with the 5-MA holding above the 20-MA; target back toward yesterday's high (53,811).
With-trend Long #2 — Post-speech continuation long if Warsh's tone reads dovish/neutral and price breaks above 53,811 with volume; target a measured move toward 54,000.
Counter-trend Short — Fade candidate right around/after the 10 AM release if price spikes into resistance near 53,800–53,850 on a "sell the news" reaction (common after a build-up event like this), or a hawkish-surprise breakdown back below the pivot; target back to 53,500–53,369.
27-Minute Swing Magnitude Forecast
Using the average of your last three actual YM daily ranges (371, 343, 442 → avg ≈ 385 points), scaled by √(27/390):
385 × √(27/390) ≈ 101 points
Plan for ~95–105 point swings per 27-minute cycle today — likely on the lower end of that range in the quiet pre-10 AM window, then expect a sharp expansion (possibly well beyond that range) in the first one or two 27-minute cycles immediately following Warsh's remarks, before settling back down into the afternoon.
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
12:00 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Kevin Warsh Speaks
10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
DATE: 8/28/2026
TIME: 9:25 AM
HIGH: 53811
LOW: 53369
CLOSE: 53621
PIVOT: 53600
SUPPORT: 53505
RESISTANCE: 53974
SWING MAGNITUDE: 219
TIME OF COMMENT: 9:25 AM
COMMENT: For today's real-time trading calls, enjoy a One Week Trial at https://www.eminiace.com/services
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