Day-Trading Scenarios for Aug 31, 2026
Narrow range down trend to start. Look to short rallies.
Prior Day Recap — Friday, August 28, 2026
The Dow finished essentially flat, down just 9.45 points (-0.02%) to 53,559.99, but still closed out its first winning week in three (+0.5% for the week). The session was all about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote: stocks initially popped on the headline, then faded hard into the early afternoon after Warsh struck a firmer-than-expected tone on inflation and pushed back on rate-cut hopes — Treasury yields and the dollar jumped, gold fell, and small caps (Russell 2000 -1.3%) took the brunt of the repricing. The S&P 500 (-0.25%) and Nasdaq (-0.52%) underperformed the Dow, as chipmakers gave back some of Thursday's Nvidia-fueled surge — notably, both Nvidia and Marvell beat estimates and still sold off, a sign the market was punishing any imperfection.
The key theme heading into today is digesting Warsh's message: "the inflation fight isn't over," delivered without the forward guidance markets typically get from a Jackson Hole keynote.
Trade Ideas
With-trend Short #1 — Fade any bounce that fails to reclaim the pivot (53,653) on the 15-min chart, with the 5-MA staying below the 20-MA; target back toward Friday's low (53,513).
With-trend Short #2 — Breakdown continuation below 53,513 if the 60-min trend confirms lower-highs/lower-lows; target a measured move toward 53,300–53,320.
Counter-trend Long — Scalp bounce off current levels (53,472) or a retest of Friday's low (53,513), betting on short-covering back toward the pivot — tight stop below 53,450.
27-Minute Swing Magnitude Forecast
Using the average of your last four actual YM daily ranges (371, 343, 442, 349 → avg ≈ 376 points), scaled by √(27/390):
376 × √(27/390) ≈ 99 points
Plan for ~90–105 point swings per 27-minute cycle today. With no major scheduled catalyst,
30-Yr TIPS Settlement
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
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DATE: 8/31/2026
TIME: 9:10 AM
HIGH: 53862
LOW: 53513
CLOSE: 53584
PIVOT: 53653
SUPPORT: 53208
RESISTANCE: 53693
SWING MAGNITUDE: 195
TIME OF COMMENT: 9:10 AM
COMMENT: For today's real-time trading calls, enjoy a One Week Trial at https://www.eminiace.com/services
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