Day-Trading Scenarios for Sep 14, 2026

Oil and interest rates in the news. Goldman says 90% chance rate increase on Wednesday.

Prior Session Recap — Friday, September 11, 2026

The Dow staged a strong relief rally to close out the week, jumping 509.19 points (0.98%) to 52,573.29, with the S&P 500 up 0.86% to 7,656.98 and the Nasdaq up 0.96% to 26,333.04. Your YM data (H 52739 / L 52059 / Settle 52585) tracks that rally closely, with a 680-point range. This ended a four-session losing streak, though the Dow still logged its worst week since March. The rally was driven by relief rather than good news: August CPI came in exactly in line with expectations (headline +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y), and while core CPI ran slightly hot at +0.3% m/m, it wasn't the upside shock the market had been bracing for after four straight down days.

Fundamental Picture

The dominant story shifts this week from inflation data to Fed action. Friday's in-line CPI didn't settle the debate — it actually pushed rate-hike odds higher, with markets now pricing an 85–90% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at this week's FOMC meeting (Monday/Tuesday, September 15–16), up from roughly 68% before the CPI release. That's a genuinely unusual setup: stocks rallying into a meeting where hike odds just increased, on the logic that decisive Fed action against still-elevated inflation (core CPI eased to 2.4% y/y from 2.5%, even though the monthly print ran hot) is preferable to the uncertainty markets had been pricing around energy-driven inflation risk.

At 52350, price is trading below the pivot but above S1 — a pullback from Friday's rally that hasn't yet threatened Friday's low or S1 support. This is a notably softer location than yesterday's setup, where price was holding above R1; today's open reflects some giveback of Friday's relief-rally gains, consistent with pre-FOMC positioning caution rather than a resumption of the prior week's downtrend.

Trade Ideas (2 With-Trend / 1 Counter-Trend)

With-trend #1 — Pivot rejection short: With price below the pivot (52,461), a failed retest of the pivot from below with 15-min MA confirmation offers a short toward S1 (52,183), consistent with the current below-pivot bias.

With-trend #2 — S1 breakdown continuation: If S1 (52,183) fails to hold, look for continuation short toward S2 (51,781), particularly if oil resumes climbing or FOMC positioning turns defensive.

Counter-trend — Pivot reclaim long: A reclaim and hold above the pivot (52,461) with 15-min bullish MA alignment offers the counter-trend long back toward R1 (52,863) — betting on Friday's relief-rally momentum reasserting itself pre-FOMC. Given today's below-pivot open, I'd size this smaller per your framework, as it's fighting the immediate directional tilt.

Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)

 11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

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DATE: 9/14/2026

TIME: 9:12 AM

HIGH: 52739

LOW: 52059

CLOSE: 52585

PIVOT: 52461

SUPPORT: 52091

RESISTANCE: 52676

SWING MAGNITUDE: 242

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:12 AM

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