Day-Trading Scenarios for Sep 16, 2026

Fed announcement today!

YM Daily Trading Report — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Prior Session Recap

The Dow sold off Tuesday, with the cash index down 328 points (-0.63%) to close at 52,093 and YM futures settling near 52,526. The move was driven by a hotter-than-expected CPI print showing sticky services inflation, alongside a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.04% and continued strength in oil. Growth-sensitive tech names led the decline — Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft all posted losses of 1-3% — while defensive and industrial names held up better, with 3M and Johnson & Johnson both closing higher.

Fundamental Backdrop

Today's session is dominated by the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with markets pricing in a 92-93% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% — the first hike since 2023. The move reflects persistent underlying inflation alongside an energy-driven price shock tied to ongoing tensions with Iran. The decision will be accompanied by the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, with Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference following at 2:30 PM. Given Warsh's stated preference for less explicit forward guidance than prior Fed leadership, the post-announcement reaction carries elevated uncertainty. Expect a comparatively orderly morning session followed by tightening ranges into early afternoon, with the primary volatility expansion likely concentrated in the final 90 minutes of the day.

Technical Picture

Daily Pivot: (52,906 + 52,317 + 52,526) / 3 = 52,583

Price is trading just above pivot, confirming a mildly constructive tone for the session open. Both the 60-minute and 15-minute 5/20 moving average crossovers are aligned to the upside, giving a bullish trend read across both trading timeframes — a clean alignment that supports trading with the trend on the long side today.

27-Minute Swing Magnitude: Based on yesterday's 589-point range, the expected swing per 27-minute cycle falls in the 90-150 point zone. Pullbacks within that magnitude that hold above pivot should be treated as continuation opportunities rather than trend breaks.

Trade Plan

With-Trend Long #1 — Pivot Reclaim:Look for a pullback toward the 52,583-52,600 pivot zone that holds, targeting a move back toward the 52,850-52,906 area (prior day's high), consistent with the swing magnitude range.

With-Trend Long #2 — Range Extension:A break and hold above the overnight high near 52,700-52,720 opens the next 27-minute extension zone toward 52,770-52,820.

Counter-Trend Short — Fade at Resistance:A stretch into the 52,900-52,930 zone (prior day's high/round-number resistance) offers a scalp-sized counter-trend short back toward pivot, sized smaller than the with-trend setups given the prevailing bullish alignment.

Risk Note: All positions should be flat or defensively sized ahead of the 2:00 PM FOMC announcement, given the binary nature of the rate decision and the potential for a volatile secondary move at the 2:30 PM press conference.

MBA Mortgage Applications

 7:00 AM ET

Retail Sales

 8:30 AM ET

Import and Export Prices

 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories

 10:00 AM ET

Housing Market Index

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 10:30 AM ET

Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

FOMC Announcement

 2:00 PM ET

Fed Chair Press Conference

 2:30 PM ET

Treasury International Capital

 4:00 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 9/16/2026

TIME: 8:34 AM

HIGH: 52906

LOW: 52317

CLOSE: 52526

PIVOT: 52583

SUPPORT: 52436

RESISTANCE: 52920

SWING MAGNITUDE: 261

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:34 AM

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