Day-Trading Scenarios for Dec 16, 2025

Volume beginning to contract as holiday week approaches. We do have a big jobs report which will dictate the next 3 days of trading.

The jobs report is a major catalyst today, especially as markets price in Federal Reserve policy for 2026:

• Weaker-than-expected data (e.g., below 40K jobs or rising unemployment) → Could boost expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2026, supporting stocks (particularly rate-sensitive sectors) but raising recession fears. Bonds rally (yields fall), dollar weakens.

• Stronger-than-expected → Might reduce rate-cut bets, pressuring equities (especially growth/tech stocks) while supporting the dollar and yields.

Markets remain in a strong yearly uptrend (Dow up ~14% YTD), and seasonal tailwinds often support gains in late December, but volatility could pick up depending on economic releases.

Until daily trend changes we stay with it; meaning buy pullbacks.

Employment Situation

 8:30 AM ET

Housing Starts and Permits

 8:30 AM ET

Retail Sales

 8:30 AM ET

PMI Composite Flash

 9:45 AM ET

Business Inventories

 10:00 AM ET

Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

8-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

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DATE: 12/16/2025

TIME: 8:26 AM

HIGH: 49134

LOW: 48675

CLOSE: 48838

PIVOT: 48882

SUPPORT: 48645

RESISTANCE: 49199

SWING MAGNITUDE: 221

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:26 AM