Day-Trading Scenarios for Feb 12, 2026

The New York Yankees say Punxsutawney Phil is wrong. Spring starts today!

The market is not sure who to believe. There is a big institutional seller so far at 50400 area. Trend still up. Could get very choppy. We have sell stops below 49977.

The outlook is cautiously optimistic, bolstered by stronger-than-expected January nonfarm payrolls data released today, which showed +130,000 jobs added (vs. +53,000 expected) and unemployment dipping to 4.3% (vs. 4.5% expected).

This eases recession fears and supports reflation trades, though it may temper expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, potentially delaying the first cut beyond March. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 227,000 (slightly above the 222,000 consensus), while continuing claims rose to 1,862,000, indicating a stable but not overheating labor market.

The calendar is otherwise light, with the monthly U.S. federal budget statement expected at -$95 billion (vs. -$129 billion prior) and no other major releases; the PPI report was postponed to February 27.

6-Week Bill Settlement

Jobless Claims

 8:30 AM ET

Existing Home Sales

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

52-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

20-Yr Bond Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

30-Yr TIPS Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Auction

 1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet

 4:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 2/12/2026

TIME: 9:25 AM

HIGH: 50585

LOW: 49977

CLOSE: 50205

PIVOT: 50256

SUPPORT: 49977

RESISTANCE: 50554

SWING MAGNITUDE: 230

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:25 AM

COMMENT: For today's real-time trading calls enjoy a One Week Trial at https://www.eminiace.com/services