Day-Trading Scenarios for Jul 02, 2026

Trend is up. Only take long trades on pullbacks.

First good support is 52680.

Second support is 52620.

Watch for flag patterns.

obs Report Reaction: The June nonfarm payrolls came in very soft at +57k (well below ~110-115k expectations), with unemployment ticking to 4.2%. This softer labor market data generally supports a less aggressive Fed stance or potential rate cuts later, which is equity-positive in the near term. However, it also raises mild recession concerns if the slowdown accelerates.

Fed Commentary: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at the ECB Forum, reaffirming commitment to 2% inflation (prices still seen as "too high") and central bank independence. Inflation risks have moderated recently, but no dovish pivot signaled for July. Markets are watching for any nuance on the path ahead.

Broader Context: The Dow recently hit records (closing above 52,000 recently) amid AI momentum, geopolitical de-escalation (U.S.-Iran), and rotation into "old economy" stocks. Tech/Nasdaq has been relatively weaker. Oil is softer (geopolitical relief), which helps industrials/transports in the Dow. Markets are closed tomorrow (July 3 holiday), so positioning may be light.

Employment Situation

 8:30 AM ET

Factory Orders

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

52-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

3-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

10-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet

 4:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 7/2/2026

TIME: 9:19 AM

HIGH: 53105

LOW: 52381

CLOSE: 52668

PIVOT: 52718

SUPPORT: 52503

RESISTANCE: 53009

SWING MAGNITUDE: 198

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:19 AM

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