Day-Trading Scenarios for Jul 29, 2026

The market should recover because Iran wants to make a deal according to Donald Trump.

Iran is sending their top negotiators: Monty Hall, Frank Abagnale, and Pinocchio to Washington.

A secondary factor for prices today is the Fed announcement at 2:00 PM. Expected tone is hawkish.

Yesterday (Tuesday, July 28) recap:

The Dow had its best day of the week: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 537.24 points, or 1.03%, to close at 52,747.32, still short of its July 6 record of 53,055.91, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.22% to 24,876.91 and the S&P 500 added 0.21% to 7,428.78. The Dow posted a third straight winning day, driven by strong earnings, falling oil prices, and continued rotation out of semiconductors — Sherwin-Williams jumped 8% on a Q2 beat and Coca-Cola popped 5% on a beat-and-raise. Chips stayed under heavy pressure: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.5%, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down more than 3% for a fourth straight day as Micron and AMD each fell more than 8%. The VIX rose to 18.67, and seven of eleven S&P sectors finished positive, with staples, discretionary, and communication services leading while energy, tech, and utilities lagged

This morning (Wednesday, July 29) setup:

It's a headline-heavy morning. Futures found their footing after Iran launched a surprise attack against the US overnight, with the Fed's policy decision and earnings from two major AI spenders on deck. S&P 500 futures are up about 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.3%, but Dow futures actually slipped roughly 0.2% as oil prices rose on the renewed Middle East tensions. That's a notable divergence from yesterday — the Dow's energy/industrial tilt can cut both ways depending on whether oil is rising for "growth" or "fear" reasons. On the chip side, SK Hynix's Q2 profit rose 557% year-over-year but missed Wall Street's number, stoking concerns the AI boom may be slowing, and the Kospi fell nearly 6% in Asia as investors again dumped chip names.

The big catalyst today is the Fed decision this afternoon — unusually, traders are assigning about a 30% chance of a Fed rate hike (not a cut), an unusual setup given traders had been pricing rate relief just last week. Layer on top of that a stacked earnings slate: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Arm, Qualcomm, Procter & Gamble, and Starbucks all report today. Between the Fed decision, mega-cap tech earnings, and overnight Iran headlines, this is a session where volatility can spike fast in either direction — not a day to assume the morning trend holds through the close.

MBA Mortgage Applications

 7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 10:30 AM ET

Survey of Business Uncertainty

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

2-Yr FRN Note Auction

 11:30 AM ET

FOMC Announcement

 2:00 PM ET

Fed Chair Press Conference

 2:30 PM ET

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DATE: 7/29/2026

TIME: 9:25 AM

HIGH: 53105

LOW: 52290

CLOSE: 52944

PIVOT: 52780

SUPPORT: 52461

RESISTANCE: 53079

SWING MAGNITUDE: 237

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:25 AM

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