Day-Trading Scenarios for Jun 17, 2026

Fed announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern. Don't expect a rate change.

FOMC Decision (2:00 PM ET): Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% (≈97% probability per CME FedWatch). This is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. Focus shifts to the dot plot, economic projections, and press conference tone.

• Markets are pricing in limited or no rate cuts for the rest of 2026, with some discussion of potential hikes if inflation remains sticky.

• Hawkish signals (stronger language on inflation, removal of easing bias, or upward revisions to dots) could pressure equities and support the USD.

• Dovish/neutral tone could support risk assets and a bullish continuation in indices.

• SpaceX momentum: Continued strength and high-profile moves (e.g., acquisition activity and market cap gains) highlight AI/tech tailwinds benefiting broader sentiment.

• Pizza Hut sale: Yum Brands divesting assets (China to Yum China; U.S./international to private equity) — minor sector rotation signal but limited direct Dow impact.

• Geopolitical: U.S.-Iran developments and energy market flows (tankers, potential deals) could influence oil and risk sentiment.

• Broader tone: Markets remain supported by AI supercycle expectations and solid earnings growth forecasts, though valuations are elevated and sensitive to policy shifts.

Integration into Day Trading Plan:

• Bias Tilt: Lean bullish on dips while above key supports, but prepare for volatility around FOMC. Hawkish surprises → defensive posture / short opportunities on breakdowns. Dovish → momentum longs.

• Watch how earnings and retail sales data interact with technical levels on your 60-min / 15-min charts.

Retail Sales

 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories

 10:00 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index

 10:00 AM ET

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 10:30 AM ET

4-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

FOMC Announcement

 2:00 PM ET

Fed Chair Press Conference

 2:30 PM ET

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DATE: 6/17/2026

TIME: 9:22 AM

HIGH: 52638

LOW: 52080

CLOSE: 52470

PIVOT: 52396

SUPPORT: 51997

RESISTANCE: 52555

SWING MAGNITUDE: 234

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:22 AM

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