Day-Trading Scenarios for Jun 18, 2026

Kevin washed the bulls.

The FOMC unanimously held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75%. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the statement was significantly shortened (removing much prior dovish language) and projections leaned more hawkish: officials signaled readiness to raise rates if inflation persists, with the dot plot showing potential for hikes (possibly as soon as later in 2026). Emphasis was placed on delivering price stability amid solid economic activity, strong productivity/capital investment, and stable labor markets.

Market reaction was negative: Major indexes sold off into the close. The Dow fell ~1% (~500 points), S&P 500 -1.2%, and Nasdaq -1.3% (tech-heavy weakness). Treasury yields rose (especially short-term) as rate-hike expectations increased. This erased some recent gains tied to U.S.-Iran de-escalation news.

2. Short Trade Idea: Short on failure to hold support or rejection at resistance (e.g., post-bounce fade). Target further downside toward next support levels. Stop above recent highs. Rationale: Hawkish Fed overhang + yesterday’s distribution could lead to follow-through selling if risk-off persists. Use if momentum indicators remain weak or yields spike higher.

A grandma idea:

Thesis: Post-Fed relief bounce fades at resistance.

The hawkish Warsh tone hasn't been fully priced in.

Any early morning pop into overhead supply is a fade candidate — classic Banker's Flush into sellers.

Entry zone 52,250–52,295 (short on a rejection/failed breakout)Stop52,395 (above the supply zone)Target 1 -- 51,900Target 2 -- 51,700

Risk/Reward~1:2+

TriggerLook for a bearish 5-min reversal candle or TTT pattern into resistance with a rejection wick

Jobless Claims

 8:30 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

 8:30 AM ET

Leading Indicators

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

2-Yr FRN Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

2-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

5-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

7-Yr Note Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 1:00 PM ET

5-Yr TIPS Auction

 1:00 PM ET

Quadruple Witching (Observed)

 2:00 PM ET

Treasury International Capital

 4:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet

 4:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 6/18/2026

TIME: 9:22 AM

HIGH: 52734

LOW: 51839

CLOSE: 51944

PIVOT: 52172

SUPPORT: 51806

RESISTANCE: 52420

SWING MAGNITUDE: 219

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:22 AM

COMMENT: For today's real-time trading calls enjoy a One Week Trial at https://www.eminiace.com/services