Day-Trading Scenarios for Jun 29, 2026

Start the week with an uptrend.

As I write this we have already completed 4 scalp trade longs.

Markets are showing a cautious rebound this morning after a mixed-to-negative week for major averages, driven by a tech/value rotation and lingering macro pressures. Key factors:

Geopolitics (US-Iran): A fragile ceasefire/stand-down is in place after recent exchanges of fire near the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides appear to be de-escalating for now, with technical talks expected soon (possibly in Doha). This reduces immediate oil supply disruption fears, which is supportive for equities (oil prices have eased). However, the situation remains volatile and any breakdown could spike volatility.

Inflation & Fed: Recent PCE data (Fed’s preferred gauge) showed headline at +4.1% YoY and core at +3.4% YoY in May — stickier than desired and the highest core reading in some time. This keeps rate hike expectations on the table and limits dovish hopes, weighing on sentiment amid resilient growth but persistent services/ tariff-related pressures.

As with any trend, trailing stops always the issue. If we do get a Crable short signal, I will take it - lots of trailing longs are tightening stops.

Broader Context: Rotation out of high-valuation tech into value/Dow components (healthcare, real estate, industrials) has supported the Dow relative to Nasdaq recently. No major US economic data today (light calendar), so focus is on geopolitics, futures positioning, and any headlines.

Overall fundamentals are mixed: positive de-escalation news and value rotation provide a bid, but sticky inflation and macro uncertainty cap upside and keep risk sentiment fragile.

• Bullish Bias / Long on Dip (Preferred Setup): Buy on a pullback to support (e.g., 52,150-52,200 zone) if it holds with bullish candlestick reversal or volume. Target 52,600-52,700 (quick 300-500 points). Stop below recent low (~52,100 or tighter). Rationale: Premarket strength + de-escalation tailwind + technical uptrend. Trail stops on strength. Good for intraday or to tomorrow if momentum builds.

• Range Fade or Short Scalp (Counter-Trend): If price rejects 52,500+ resistance early with weak volume or negative headlines (e.g., Iran escalation), short for a move back to 52,200-52,100. Target 200-400 points, tight stop above highs. This is higher-risk in a bullish bias environment — better as a scalp than a directional hold.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

 10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Farm Prices

 3:00 PM ET

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DATE: 6/29/2026

TIME: 9:25 AM

HIGH: 52542

LOW: 52008

CLOSE: 52209

PIVOT: 52253

SUPPORT: 52205

RESISTANCE: 52806

SWING MAGNITUDE: 229

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:25 AM

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