Day-Trading Scenarios for Feb 17, 2026

After the 1,000 point range on the 12th, the market has been consolidating.

Not a bad idea to go with the 30 minute opening range breakout this morning. Use that 30 minute bar for buy/sell stops.

First support this morning is 49348. First resistance is 49599.

The contract remains in a short-term uptrend channel but is facing key resistance near 49,800. A sustained break above this level could open the door to further upside toward 50,520–51,000. On the downside, immediate support sits at 49,335, with stronger levels at 49,070 and the 50-day moving average zone around 49,000–49,100. Failure to hold 49,335 might accelerate selling toward 48,300–48,600.

• 2:00 PM EST: FOMC Minutes (from the January meeting) – Could provide clarity on the Fed's outlook for 2026 cuts.

If data comes in softer, it may reinforce dovish Fed expectations and lift futures. Conversely, stronger readings or hawkish Fed commentary could exacerbate downside risks. Global cues are supportive, with European markets firm and Asian indices mixed amid Lunar New Year closures.

30-Yr Bond Settlement

Retail Sales

 8:30 AM ET

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories

 10:00 AM ET

Housing Market Index

 10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

8-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Michael Barr Speaks

 12:45 PM ET

6-Week Bill Auction

 1:00 PM ET

52-Week Bill Auction

 1:00 PM ET

Mary Daly Speaks

 2:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 2/17/2026

TIME: 8:30 AM

HIGH: 49820

LOW: 49556

CLOSE: 49606

PIVOT: 49661

SUPPORT: 49302

RESISTANCE: 49765

SWING MAGNITUDE: 225

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:30 AM

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