Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 08, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Thursday, Oct. 8)

YM traded a 690-point range (50,909 – 51,599). The low came overnight; the cash session opened near 51,225 and rallied into the close. YM settled at 51,493, up 44 points. The cash session reversed the overnight break of 51,000. The low of the day session, 51,197, held above Wednesday’s low, and buyers drove YM to finish at its high.

In the cash market, the Dow finished just below unchanged after briefly turning positive around 1:30 PM. The Nasdaq fell 1.25%, and the S&P 500 also closed well lower, hit by chip stocks: Nvidia and Intel fell, and TSMC slipped despite September sales up 55%. Energy names such as Chevron rose with crude. The 10-year yield neared 5.35%. The four-week average of jobless claims eased to 198,000.

Fundamental Analysis

Oil risk eased overnight. Brent fell about 1% to around $103, and WTI moved toward $90, after President Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterms. The 10-year has eased to about 5.25%, below Wednesday’s 5.364% peak but still near a 24-year high. Futures are higher: the Dow is up 0.17%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 220 points as tech rebounds. Nvidia is up 1.6% premarket after a report put OpenAI’s annualized September revenue near $50 billion.

Two Dow components are working against the index this morning. Verizon is falling with the telecom group after SpaceX agreed to buy about $8 billion of low-band spectrum. Apple is down nearly 2% on a report that iPhone 18 Pro component orders were cut by at least 15%. Expect YM to lag NQ again. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October sentiment report, with inflation expectations in focus, is due at 10:00 ET, just after the 9:57 cycle turn. Last month’s one-year inflation-expectations reading of 4.6% moved yields, so a hot number could hit the market. It’s a Friday, so expect weekend Iran headline risk to bring squaring into the 3:21 and 3:48 turns.

Technical Picture

Pivot levels (from H 51,599 / L 50,909 / S 51,493):

Level	Price
R3	52,449
R2	52,024
R1	51,759
Pivot	51,334
S1	51,069
S2	50,644
S3	50,379

Position: YM at 51,513 is up 20 points from the settle and 179 above the pivot, between the pivot and R1. Thursday’s high of 51,599 is 86 points overhead.

Trend, measured from 1-minute bars (as of 8:45 ET):

Timeframe	SMA 5	SMA 20	Read
15-minute	51,554	51,564	5 marginally under 20, a mild pullback
60-minute	51,565	51,548	5 over 20, bullish

Price is above the pivot and the 60-minute chart is bullish, so the bias is long. The 15-minute dip is a pullback within the uptrend, and it could be the start of the downside stop-run.

Caution: The up-bias version of this model has a weaker record in the sample than the down-bias version. Up-bias days held into the close only about 2 times in 7 during September, while that month trended lower. Take profits on longs faster than on shorts, and respect the failure level.

Swing Magnitude Factor and Measured Move

This morning’s swing magnitude factor (first 30 minutes): about 180 points.85% chance the first 30 minutes moves at least 120 points.

This is the quietest overnight session in the data set: a 153-point range, compared with 456 to 561 earlier this week. A smaller opening move is expected. The UMich release at 10:00 could still widen it.

Stop-run model, up bias (reference price 51,513; shift the levels if the open is elsewhere):

Step	Rule	Level
Stop-run low (buy zone)	0.43 × SMF ≈ −78	≈ 51,435
Up bias fails below	0.6 × SMF ≈ −109	51,404
Measured move (1.0 × SMF)	51,435 + 182	≈ 51,617 (above Thursday’s 51,599 high)
Typical first-90-minute leg (1.15 ×)	51,435 + 209	≈ 51,644
Full-day extension (1.7 ×)	51,435 + 309	≈ 51,744 (at R1 51,759)

Trade Plan

Trade 1: With trend, buy the stop-run (Plan A)

• Entry: 51,425 – 51,450 (the 0.43 × SMF flush below the open)

• Stop: 51,395 (below the failure level)

• Targets: 51,599 (Thursday’s high), then 51,617 (one full SMF)

Trade 2: With trend, buy the cycle pullback (Plan B, if the market rallies straight from the open)

• Setup: don’t chase. Wait for the pullback into a 27-minute cycle turn (9:57, 10:24 or 10:51; the 10:00 UMich release lands on the first). Buy when the 1-minute stochastic is below 20 and turns up.

• Stop: 50 – 60 points below the pullback low

• Target: one full SMF (about 180 points) from the pullback low. R1 at 51,759 is the ceiling for the day.

Trade 3: Counter-trend sell at R1

• Entry: 51,740 – 51,760 (R1 and the 1.7 × SMF extension)

• Stop: 51,820

• Target: 51,617

• Take this only on a cycle-turn high with a clean reversal bar. Keep size light, and stay flat into the weekend.

Consumer Sentiment

 10:00 AM ET

Baker Hughes Rig Count

 1:00 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 10/9/2026

TIME: 8:14 AM

HIGH: 51599

LOW: 50909

CLOSE: 51493

PIVOT: 51334

SUPPORT: 51305.5

RESISTANCE: 51850.5

SWING MAGNITUDE: 180

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:14 AM

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