Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 12, 2026

Happy Columbus Day

Prior Session Recap (Friday, Oct. 9)

YM traded a 557-point range (51,475 – 52,032) and settled at 51,926, up 433 points. It was the strongest close since September, with buyers in control all day. In the cash market, the Dow rose 0.83% to 51,654.95, the S&P 500 gained 0.59% and the Nasdaq rose 0.64%. Oil eased after President Trump said the U.S. would not strike Iran before the midterms, and the VIX fell to 14.84. Humana jumped 11.7%. Delta fell after cutting its 2026 profit outlook, and telecom lagged after SpaceX’s spectrum deal. The 10-year held at 5.24%.

Fundamental Analysis

Weekend geopolitics pushed oil back up. Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s airport killed at least 13 people, including a U.S. citizen. President Trump is reportedly considering joining the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis, which puts Bab el-Mandeb shipping at risk. Two tankers were also attacked. WTI is up 1.1% to $92.89, and Brent is up 1.2% to $106. Iran is reviewing a U.S. response on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Isaias made landfall Friday night near Destin as a Category 2 and missed the major refining hubs. The Energy Department authorized emergency crude exchanges from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Exxon and BP. Despite the oil move, Dow futures are higher.

It’s Columbus Day: stocks and futures trade normal hours, but the cash bond market is closed. Expect thinner institutional volume and less signal from yields, which leaves oil as the main macro driver today. The calendar picks up quickly from Tuesday. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, both Dow components, report Tuesday along with Citi. September CPI is due Wednesday and PPI Thursday. Analysts expect about 30% EPS growth this quarter. Positioning ahead of the banks and CPI may keep today’s moves contained.

Technical Picture

Pivot levels (from H 52,032 / L 51,475 / S 51,926):

Level	Price
R3	52,704
R2	52,368
R1	52,147
Pivot	51,811
S1	51,590
S2	51,254
S3	51,033

Position: YM at 52,008 is up 82 points from the settle and 197 above the pivot, 24 points under Friday’s high.

Key level, 52,000 – 52,032: This zone has capped YM four times since late September: 52,002 on Sept. 29, 51,997 on Sept. 30, about 52,020 on Oct. 6, and 52,032 on Friday. A sustained break above it would be the first since the Sept. 25 – 28 highs at 52,153 – 52,223.

Trend: Friday’s close at the high and the overnight extension point to bullish 5/20 crossovers on both the 15-minute and 60-minute charts. Confirm both crossovers on the charts before the open. Bias: long above the pivot.

Revised SMF (now built from the actual overnight range of 218 points, 51,913 – 52,131):

Happy Columbus Day

Beth Hammack Speaks

 12:50 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 10/12/2026

TIME: 9:22 AM

HIGH: 52032

LOW: 51475

CLOSE: 51926

PIVOT: 51811

SUPPORT: 51733.5

RESISTANCE: 52282.5

SWING MAGNITUDE: 218

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:22 AM

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