Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 13, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Monday, Oct. 12)

YM traded a narrow 269-point range (51,913 – 52,182) on light Columbus Day volume and settled at 52,110, up 184 points. It cleared the 52,000 – 52,032 ceiling that had capped the market since late September, and it held above that level all afternoon. In the cash market, the Dow rose 195.60 points (0.38%) to 51,850.55. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%, so the Dow led for the second straight session.

Fundamental Analysis

YM has rallied overnight while tech sells off. Dow futures are up sharply, S&P futures are about flat, and Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 0.6%. The Dow is being lifted by UnitedHealth, a heavily weighted component, which beat estimates ($4.69 vs. $4.14) and raised its 2026 EPS outlook to at least $20.50. Chips are the drag. South Korea’s KOSPI fell about 6% after Chinese memory maker CXMT reported design progress, hitting Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Nvidia. The bank reports are mixed. JPMorgan, also a Dow component, is down about 3.4% premarket despite higher profit, and Wells Fargo is down about 1%. Goldman Sachs, also in the Dow, and Citi report this morning.

The macro backdrop is unchanged. Brent topped $105 before easing, WTI is near $92, the 10-year is at 5.24%, and the VIX is 15.5. Existing home sales are due at 10:00 ET, just after the 9:57 cycle turn. September CPI comes Wednesday and PPI Thursday, so expect traders to cut risk into this afternoon’s close. The market expects the Fed to hold in October, so a hot CPI print would hit the market hard.

Timeframe SMA 5 SMA 20 Read

15-minute 52,526 52,420 5 over 20, bullish

60-minute 52,421 52,244 5 over 20, bullish

Both timeframes are bullish and price is far above the pivot, so the setup is fully aligned long. The caution is that the overnight session was unsettled. Between 5:50 and 7:00 ET, YM dropped about 450 points, from 52,563 to 52,114, then recovered all of it. A gap this far above R3 can fill quickly if the bias fails.

Swing Magnitude Factor and Measured Move

This morning’s swing magnitude factor (first 30 minutes): about 275 points.

85% chance the first 30 minutes moves at least 210 points.

This is a larger forecast than Monday’s because the overnight range was a wide 517 points. The model is now fitted to 22 sessions.

Both timeframes are bullish and price is far above the pivot, so the setup is fully aligned long. The caution is that the overnight session was unsettled. Between 5:50 and 7:00 ET, YM dropped about 450 points, from 52,563 to 52,114, then recovered all of it. A gap this far above R3 can fill quickly if the bias fails.

Swing Magnitude Factor and Measured Move

This morning’s swing magnitude factor (first 30 minutes): about 275 points.

85% chance the first 30 minutes moves at least 210 points.

This is a larger forecast than Monday’s because the overnight range was a wide 517 points. The model is now fitted to 22 sessions.

Stop-run model, up bias (reference price 52,580; shift the levels if the open is elsewhere):

Step Rule Level

Stop-run low (buy zone) 0.43 × SMF ≈ −117 ≈ 52,463 (R3 at 52,492 sits just above)

Up bias fails below 0.6 × SMF ≈ −164 52,416

Measured move (1.0 × SMF) 52,463 + 273 ≈ 52,736 (mid-September resistance ~52,750)

Typical first-90-minute leg (1.15 ×) 52,463 + 314 ≈ 52,777

Full-day extension (1.7 ×) 52,463 + 464 ≈ 52,927

The last two sessions were both no-pop days. If the market runs straight up from the open again, go to Plan B rather than chase.

Trade Plan

Trade 1: With trend, buy the stop-run (Plan A)

Entry: 52,450 – 52,495 (the 0.43 × SMF flush back to R3)

Stop: 52,405 (below the failure level)

Targets: 52,612 (overnight high), then 52,736 (one full SMF)

Trade 2: With trend, buy the cycle pullback (Plan B, if the market rallies straight from the open)

Setup: wait for a pullback into a 27-minute cycle turn (9:57, 10:24 or 10:51). Buy when the 1-minute stochastic is below 20 and turns up.

Stop: 60 – 70 points below the pullback low

Target: one full SMF (about 275 points) from the pullback low

Trade 3: Counter-trend sell at the measured move

Entry: 52,740 – 52,780 (the 1.0 – 1.15 × SMF targets and mid-September resistance)

Stop: 52,850

Target: 52,612

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

 6:00 AM ET

Existing Home Sales

 10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

8-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

Thomas Barkin Speaks

 1:00 PM ET

6-Week Bill Auction

 1:00 PM ET

Susan Collins Speaks

 4:00 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 10/13/2026

TIME: 9:07 AM

HIGH: 52182

LOW: 51913

CLOSE: 52110

PIVOT: 52068

SUPPORT: 52307

RESISTANCE: 52853

SWING MAGNITUDE: 275

TIME OF COMMENT: 9:07 AM

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