Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 15, 2026

Start with a narrow range.

YM Morning Report — Thursday, October 15, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Wednesday, Oct. 14)

YM traded a 579-point range (51,602 – 52,181) and settled at 51,858, down 77 points. The CPI came in hot, which pushed YM to an early low of 51,602, but the Dow held up far better than the rest of the market. The cash Dow slipped just 0.09% to 51,621.50. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.88% as tech sold off for a second day. Headline CPI rose 0.6% for the month, matching forecasts, but the annual rate reached 3.7% (3.6% expected), and core reached 2.6% a year (2.5% expected).

Fundamental Analysis

The inflation data is running hot, and this morning’s PPI confirmed it. September wholesale prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier, faster than expected and the largest annual increase since December 2022. Together with the CPI beat, that raises the odds of another Fed hike. New York Fed President Williams has already said one more hike this year looks appropriate, and before the CPI the market had priced about a 78% chance of a hold.

The rotation favors the Dow. Nasdaq-100 futures are down about 1.2% and S&P futures are down 0.3%, but Dow futures are up about 0.5%. Money is leaving high-multiple tech and chips (TSMC’s record profit hasn’t helped Nvidia or Micron) and moving into the Dow’s value, healthcare and financial names. Expect YM to keep outperforming, but a broad selloff driven by yields could still pull it down.

Swing Magnitude Factor and Measured Move

This morning’s swing magnitude factor (first 30 minutes): about 230 points.85% chance the first 30 minutes moves at least 165 points.

Lower confidence today: no overnight-range input was available. This estimate is based on recent sessions, raised for the PPI and the tech selloff.

Stop-run model, up bias (reference price 51,992; shift the levels if the open is elsewhere):

Step	Rule	Level
Stop-run low (buy zone)	0.43 × SMF ≈ −99	≈ 51,893 (just above the 51,880 pivot)
Up bias fails below	0.6 × SMF ≈ −138	51,854 (Wednesday’s settle)
Measured move (1.0 × SMF)	51,893 + 230	≈ 52,123
Typical first-90-minute leg (1.15 ×)	51,893 + 265	≈ 52,158 (R1, below Wednesday’s 52,181 high)
Full-day extension (1.7 ×)	51,893 + 391	≈ 52,284

Trade Plan

Trade 1: With trend, buy the stop-run (Plan A)

• Entry: 51,880 – 51,905 (the pivot and the 0.43 × SMF flush)

• Stop: 51,840 (below the failure level)

• Targets: 52,123, then 52,158 – 52,181 (R1 and Wednesday’s high)

Trade 2: With trend, buy the cycle pullback (Plan B, if the market rallies straight from the open)

• Setup: wait for a pullback into a 27-minute cycle turn (9:57, 10:24 or 10:51). Buy when the 1-minute stochastic is below 20 and turns up.

• Stop: 60 – 70 points below the pullback low

• Target: one full SMF (about 230 points) from the pullback low

Trade 3: Counter-trend sell at R1 and Wednesday’s high

• Entry: 52,158 – 52,185

• Stop: 52,250

• Target: 52,000

30-Yr Bond Settlement

Jobless Claims

 8:30 AM ET

PPI-Final Demand

 8:30 AM ET

Retail Sales

 8:30 AM ET

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

 8:30 AM ET

Empire State Manufacturing Index

 8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories

 10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report

 10:30 AM ET

Treasury Buyback Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

3-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Week Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

6-Month Bill Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

5-Yr TIPS Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

20-Yr Bond Announcement

 11:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

8-Week Bill Auction

 11:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report

 12:00 PM ET

Treasury Buyback Results

 2:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet

 4:30 PM ET

Beth Hammack Speaks

 4:30 PM ET

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

DATE: 10/15/2026

TIME: 8:15 AM

HIGH: 52181

LOW: 51602

CLOSE: 51858

PIVOT: 51880

SUPPORT: 51716

RESISTANCE: 52268

SWING MAGNITUDE: 215

TIME OF COMMENT: 8:15 AM

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