Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 26, 2026

YM Morning Report — Monday, October 26, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Friday, Oct 23)

YM opened Friday’s overnight session near its high of 53166, set Thursday evening, and sold off all night. The day session opened at 52528. A quick pop to 52618 in the first minute failed, and YM fell to 52413 by 9:41, a 205-point opening range. It then made the session low of 52234 at 10:28 ET. A sharp short-covering rally carried YM back to 52630 by 11:28. That high failed too, and the market drifted lower all afternoon to settle at 52394. The full-session range was 932 points, from the Thursday-evening high to the Friday-morning low.

Stocks finished lower Friday, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their second straight weekly loss. Oil settled nearly $3 higher on the day, and Brent gained about 6% for the week.

YM opened Sunday evening at 52492 and dipped to 52378 at 9:18 pm. It then climbed through Asia and London to the overnight high of 52673 at 7:54 ET. It is now at 52600, sitting right on today’s pivot.

Fundamental Picture

The Middle East escalated over the weekend. The Houthis claimed strikes on a Saudi airport and oil facilities on Saturday, and Saudi Arabia said it intercepted more missiles and drones on Sunday. CNN reported that U.S. forces could strike Iran within 96 hours of an order, though indirect negotiations are continuing. Even so, oil is easing this morning, with WTI down nearly 2% to about $101 and Brent off its highest level since April. That pullback has lifted futures: Dow futures are up about 0.4%. Verizon, a Dow component, raised its annual subscriber forecast and announced a deal worth more than $2 billion with Amazon Web Services. Tech remains fragile after Elon Musk said more than 200 “neocloud” AI-infrastructure companies could collapse, which hit CoreWeave and its peers.

This is the busiest week of the quarter. The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets expect a hold and put only about a 10% chance on a hike, but after hot inflation readings, economists expect a “hawkish pause,” with investors watching for any signal about a December hike. The ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan also meet this week. Dow heavyweights Microsoft and Amazon report this week, with Microsoft on Wednesday alongside Alphabet, and AI capital spending will again be the focus. The 10-year yield is near 4.99% and the VIX is around 19.5. Expect a cautious, two-sided Monday as traders position ahead of the Fed.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (53166 + 52234 + 52394) ÷ 3 = 52598

Level Price

R3 54462

R2 53530

R1 52962

Pivot 52598

S1 52030

S2 51666

S3 50734

Key references

Reference Price

Overnight high 52673

Friday RTH high 52630

60-minute 20 SMA ≈52522

London starting price 52486

Overnight low 52378

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52610) is above the 20 SMA (≈52522). Trend is up.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52606) has just edged above the 20 SMA (≈52600), but the two are nearly flat. Trend is up, with little conviction.

Bias: The hourly trend has turned up off the Sunday-night low, so the bias is long on pullbacks. The signal is weaker than on recent days, though: price is sitting on the pivot and the 15-minute averages are flat. London traders are long from 52486 with about 190 points of profit. As they take profits near the NY open, and as the opening stop-run plays out, a dip into 52490–52525 is likely before the uptrend resumes. That zone holds London’s starting price and the 60-minute 20 SMA. Overhead resistance is the 52630–52673 zone (Friday’s high and the overnight high). If YM breaks below 52470, the long bias is off.

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it.

With-trend #1: London profit-taking dip long. Buy a pullback into 52510–52525 when the 1-minute stochastic turns up from below 20.

Entry: 52520

Stop: 52470

Target 1: 52673 (overnight high)

Target 2: 52800 (one full Swing Magnitude Factor off the low)

With-trend #2: breakout retest long. If YM clears the 52673 overnight high, buy the first pullback to 52675–52685.

Entry: 52680

Stop: 52630

Target 1: 52800

Target 2: 52960 (one full SMF, right at R1)

Counter-trend: R1 fade short. If YM reaches R1 at 52955–52965, short when the 1-minute stochastic is above 80 and turning down, for the typical ~70-point pullback.

Entry: 52960

Stop: 53010

Target 1: 52890

Target 2: 52810

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 280 points

The normal opening range over the last 10 sessions is 276 points. Pre-open activity this morning is running at 109% of normal. London’s swing was 187 points up, from 52486 to 52673.

Measured-move targets:

If the opening stop-run bottoms near 52510, one full 280-point swing up projects to 52790, through the overnight high and on the way to R1.

If 52470 fails instead, a full swing down from the opening high points toward 52330, below the overnight low.