Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 28, 2026

Today is Fed day. One or two morning trades. Then wait until after 2:00 PM announcement.

YM Morning Report — Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Tuesday, Oct 27)

YM made its session high of 52785 at 6:48 am ET, right at R1, before the day session began. It opened at 52566 and pushed to 52666 by 9:32. That high failed, and the market fell to 52443 by 9:55, a 223-point opening range. It then made the session low of 52419 at 10:28 ET. Buyers recovered to a day-session high of 52668 at 12:02. The afternoon drifted between 52515 and 52600, and YM settled at 52579. The full-session range was only 366 points, the narrowest in weeks, as traders waited for the Fed.

The cash Dow finished essentially flat (+0.03%). The S&P 500 gained 0.60% and the Nasdaq 1.18%, led by chip stocks after Broadcom announced a $63 billion financing package for AI computing capacity.

Overnight, YM touched 52630 in the evening and slipped to 52395 at 2:37 am. From London’s open it climbed 215 points, with most of the move after 8:15 ET, to 52623 at 9:05. It is now at 52613, sitting on the pivot.

Fundamental Picture

Today is the biggest day of the week. The Fed announces its decision at 2:00 pm ET, followed by Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference. A hold at the 3.75%–4.00% range is expected, but inflation readings remain elevated and markets are pricing more hikes next year. Any hawkish signal from Warsh could hit stocks quickly. After the close, Microsoft, a Dow component, and Alphabet report, with the market focused on AI demand and capital spending. Ford, GE Vernova, ServiceNow and Chipotle also report today. Tech momentum is strong: SK Hynix reported profits up more than 600%, and chip stocks are extending Tuesday’s gains.

The Dow is lagging the rotation again. Dow futures were down about 0.2% early, while Nasdaq futures were up about 0.4%. Oil is rising after an attack on a Saudi refinery: Brent is near $115.60 and WTI near $101.40. Expect a range-bound morning as traders position ahead of the 2:00 pm decision, then a sharp move in either direction once it hits. Size down or step aside into the announcement. The most reliable trading window today is the morning session.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (52785 + 52419 + 52579) ÷ 3 = 52594

Level Price

R3 53326

R2 52960

R1 52769

Pivot 52594

S1 52403

S2 52228

S3 51862

Key references

Reference Price

Tuesday high 52785 (at R1)

Tuesday day-session high 52668

Overnight high 52630

60-minute 20 SMA ≈52516

15-minute 20 SMA ≈52499

London starting price 52408 (at S1)

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52518) is crossing just above the 20 SMA (≈52516) on the current bar. Trend is turning up, though it isn’t confirmed yet.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52580) is well above the 20 SMA (≈52499) after the strong pre-open rally. Trend is up.

Bias: The 15-minute chart is up, the hourly is crossing up, and price is sitting on the pivot, so the bias is long on pullbacks, with low conviction. London traders are long from 52408 with 215 points of profit, and most of that came in the last hour. As they take profits near the NY open, and as the opening stop-run plays out, a dip into 52500–52520 is likely. That zone holds both 20 SMAs. Overhead, the 52630–52668 zone (the overnight high and Tuesday’s day-session high) is the first ceiling, then R1 and Tuesday’s high at 52769–52785. If YM breaks below 52465, the long bias is off.

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it. Be flat or reduced before the 2:00 pm Fed decision.

With-trend #1: 20-SMA pullback long. Buy a dip into 52505–52520 when the 1-minute stochastic turns up from below 20.

Entry: 52515

Stop: 52465

Target 1: 52668 (Tuesday day-session high)

Target 2: 52720 (one full Swing Magnitude Factor off the low)

With-trend #2: breakout retest long. If YM closes a 15-minute bar above 52668, buy the first pullback to 52665–52675.

Entry: 52670

Stop: 52620

Target 1: 52769 (R1)

Target 2: 52876 (one full SMF)

Counter-trend: R1 fade short. If YM reaches the R1 zone at 52769–52785 before the Fed, short when the 1-minute stochastic is above 80 and turning down, for the typical ~70-point pullback.

Entry: 52775

Stop: 52825

Target 1: 52705

Target 2: 52635

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 206 points

The overnight range is 235 points, from 52395 at 2:37 am to 52630 at 7:43 pm. If YM breaks above 52630 or below 52395 before the open, add 3 points to the SMF for every 10 points of new range. Pre-open trading is quieter than normal, which is typical ahead of a Fed decision. London’s swing was 215 points up, from 52408 to 52623.

Measured-move targets:

If the opening stop-run bottoms near 52510, one full 206-point swing up projects to 52716, between Tuesday’s day-session high and R1.

If the open pushes up first and fails at the 52630–52668 ceiling, a full swing down from about 52650 projects to 52444, just above S1.