Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 29, 2026

YM Morning Report — Thursday, October 29, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Wednesday, Oct 28)

YM made its session low of 52395 at 2:37 am ET and opened the day session at 52546. The pre-Fed open was quiet: a 158-point opening range from 52522 to 52680. Buyers worked prices higher into midday, reaching a day-session high of 52822 at 12:55. After the 2:00 pm Fed decision, YM whipsawed: up to 52790 at 2:37, then down to the afternoon low of 52514 at 3:14. A late rally lifted YM to settle at 52696. Minutes after the close, YM spiked to the session high of 52954 at 4:02 pm on Microsoft’s earnings.

The Fed held rates steady, but two of the twelve voters favored a hike. Chair Kevin Warsh gave no forward guidance, and futures now price more than an 80% chance of a December hike.

Overnight, YM extended the post-earnings rally to 53145 at 6:31 ET. It then reversed sharply, falling 677 points to 52468 at 8:38, just after the 8:30 data. It is now at 52600.

Fundamental Picture

Big Tech earnings sent the Dow and the Nasdaq in opposite directions. Microsoft, a Dow component, is up about 3–4% premarket after Azure cloud revenue grew 48%, total revenue rose 19% to $92.3 billion, and earnings per share of $4.89 beat estimates. Alphabet is down more than 10% after missing on profit. Its ad growth was the slowest in five quarters, and capital spending jumped to $51.4 billion, renewing fears that AI spending is outrunning returns. Nasdaq futures are down more than 1%. Dow futures were up 0.5% early but have since slipped to about −0.3% as the overnight rally unwound. September core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, matched expectations, and third-quarter GDP is out this morning.

Rates are back in focus. The Fed held, but two dissents for a hike and Warsh’s comment that “interest rates get in the cracks” leave a December hike as the base case. The 10-year yield is near 5.05%. Dow components Caterpillar and Merck report before the bell, and Amazon reports after the close along with Intel. The ECB is expected to hold today. Oil has eased, with WTI near $101 and Brent near $110. After a 677-point overnight swing, expect a volatile, wide-ranging open as the market sorts out Microsoft’s strength against Alphabet’s weakness and the hawkish Fed.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (52954 + 52395 + 52696) ÷ 3 = 52682

Level	Price
R3	53800
R2	53241
R1	52969
Pivot	52682
S1	52410
S2	52123
S3	51564

Key references

Reference	Price
Overnight high	53145
15-minute 20 SMA	≈52768
60-minute 5 SMA	≈52672
Overnight low	52468
Wednesday low	52395 (just below S1)

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52672) has crossed below the 20 SMA (≈52773). Trend has turned down.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52559) is well below the 20 SMA (≈52768). Trend is down.

Bias: Both timeframes are aligned down and price is below the pivot, so the primary bias is short on rallies. The 677-point overnight reversal from 53145 erased the entire post-earnings rally. As shorts from that move take profits near the NY open, and as the opening stop-run plays out, a pop into 52670–52690, where the pivot and the 60-minute 5 SMA meet, is the first place to sell. A deeper squeeze would meet the 15-minute 20 SMA near 52770. Support is the overnight low at 52468, then the 52395–52410 zone (Wednesday’s low and S1). A break below that zone opens the way to S2 at 52123.

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it. With an unusually large SMF today, take partial profits at Target 1.

With-trend #1: pivot rejection short. Short a pop into 52670–52690 when the 1-minute stochastic is above 80 and turning down.

• Entry: 52680

• Stop: 52730

• Target 1: 52468 (overnight low)

• Target 2: 52342 (one full Swing Magnitude Factor off the high)

With-trend #2: breakdown retest short. If YM breaks below the 52468 overnight low, short the first retest of 52460–52470 from underneath.

• Entry: 52460

• Stop: 52510

• Target 1: 52400 (Wednesday’s low / S1 zone)

• Target 2: 52125 (S2)

Counter-trend: S1 reclaim long. If the open flushes into 52395–52410 and quickly recovers back above it, buy the reclaim.

• Entry: 52405

• Stop: 52355

• Target 1: 52545

• Target 2: 52680 (pivot)

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 338 points

The overnight range is 677 points, from 53145 at 6:31 am to 52468 at 8:38 am, the widest in weeks. If YM breaks above 53145 or below 52468 before the open, add 3 points to the SMF for every 10 points of new range. London’s swing covered the full overnight range: 677 points down, from 53145 to 52468.

Measured-move targets:

• If the opening stop-run peaks near 52680, one full 338-point swing down projects to 52342, through Wednesday’s low and S1.

• If the open flushes first and the 52395–52410 zone holds, a full swing up from about 52405 projects to 52743, back above the pivot.