Day-Trading Scenarios for Oct 30, 2026

YM Morning Report — Friday, October 30, 2026

Prior Session Recap (Thursday, Oct 29)

YM made its session high of 53145 at 6:31 am ET and spent the rest of the day giving it back. The day session opened at 52528 and dipped to 52363 by 9:44. A quick bounce to 52550 at 9:47 made a 187-point opening range. YM made a day-session high of 52586 at 10:07, then drifted through midday. Sellers took control after 1:00 pm and drove YM to the session low of 52310 at 2:06 pm. A late recovery lifted it to settle at 52512. The full session ranged 835 points.

The cash Dow fell about 0.3%, dragged down by a 9% drop in Caterpillar, while Merck gained about 4%. The S&P 500 lost 0.3% and the Nasdaq 1.4% as Alphabet fell more than 12%, its worst day ever. Small caps bucked the trend, with the Russell 2000 up 1%.

After the close, YM swung between 52392 and 52535 on the Amazon and Intel results. Overnight it held a low of 52335 at 9:48 pm, rallied to 52662 at 5:04 am, and has since slid to 52440.

Fundamental Picture

The AI earnings sell-off has spread. Amazon, a Dow component, is down about 7% premarket after missing on earnings and revenue, reporting free cash flow of −$42 billion and keeping its $220 billion capital spending plan. Intel is down about 26% on a weak forecast. Nasdaq futures are down more than 2% and S&P futures about 1%, but Dow futures are nearly unchanged. The Dow’s lighter tech weighting continues to cushion it, and money is rotating toward value and small caps. Chevron, also a Dow component, reports before the bell along with Exxon and AbbVie. The Q3 Employment Cost Index came out at 8:30.

Oil is climbing again. Brent is near $117 and WTI near $105 after the Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, and crude is heading for a fourth straight monthly gain. Thursday’s data was mixed: Q3 GDP beat forecasts and September PCE inflation came in slightly cooler. Even so, traders still put about an 80% chance on a December Fed hike, and the 10-year yield is near 4.99%. Today is the last trading day of October, so month-end rebalancing adds to the flows, and the midterm elections are Tuesday. Expect a volatile, two-sided session. The Dow should hold up better than the Nasdaq, but rallies may struggle with higher oil and month-end selling.

Technical Picture

Daily pivot: (53145 + 52310 + 52512) ÷ 3 = 52656

Level Price

R3 54326

R2 53491

R1 53002

Pivot 52656

S1 52167

S2 51821

S3 50986

Key references

Reference Price

London open high 52662 (right on the pivot)

15-minute 20 SMA ≈52523

Overnight low 52335

Thursday low 52310

60-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52504) is still slightly above the 20 SMA (≈52475), but the gap is closing fast. Trend is up but rolling over.

15-minute chart: The 5 SMA (≈52457) is below the 20 SMA (≈52523). Trend is down.

Bias: Price is about 215 points below the pivot, the 15-minute trend is down, and the hourly is about to cross down. The bias is short on rallies, with moderate conviction. London traders are short from 52662 with about 240 points of profit. As they take profits near the NY open, and as the opening stop-run plays out, a pop into 52515–52535, where the 15-minute 20 SMA sits, is the first place to sell. A deeper squeeze would run into 52650–52662, where the pivot and London’s starting price line up. Support is the 52310–52335 zone (Thursday’s low and the overnight low). A break below it opens the way to S1 at 52167.

Trade Plan

Stops stay within 50 points. Management: once a trade is 50 points in profit, move the stop to breakeven, then trail it.

With-trend #1: 15-minute 20 SMA short. Short a pop into 52515–52535 when the 1-minute stochastic is above 80 and turning down.

Entry: 52525

Stop: 52575

Target 1: 52335 (overnight low)

Target 2: 52292 (one full Swing Magnitude Factor off the high)

With-trend #2: pivot / London-start short. If the opening squeeze stops out trade #1 and carries into 52650–52662, re-short there. This is the strongest resistance on the chart.

Entry: 52655

Stop: 52705

Target 1: 52525

Target 2: 52422 (one full SMF off the high)

Counter-trend: shelf reclaim long. If the open flushes into 52310–52335 and quickly recovers back above it, buy the reclaim.

Entry: 52320

Stop: 52270

Target 1: 52440

Target 2: 52553 (one full SMF off the low)

Swing Magnitude Factor Forecast (9:30–10:00 ET range)

Forecast: 233 points

The overnight range is 327 points, from 52335 at 9:48 pm to 52662 at 5:04 am. If YM breaks above 52662 or below 52335 before the open, add 3 points to the SMF for every 10 points of new range. London’s swing was 243 points down, from 52662 to 52419.

Measured-move targets:

If the opening stop-run peaks near 52525, one full 233-point swing down projects to 52292, just under Thursday’s low.

If the open flushes first and the 52310–52335 shelf holds, a full swing up from about 52320 projects to 52553, back through the 15-minute 20 SMA