All Posts

You only need two good trades for the day to make a great living. Today rewarded the early risers. Our first trade was a short at 48377 where we rode it down to 48297 to reverse to long in anticipation of a favorable CPI. Late arriving traders were of course left out. Treat this like a businesss. You don't run a five-star restaurant and open an hour late because you wanted to watch tv. The primary catalyst this morning is the delayed November 2025 CPI report (released at 8:3

YM is at 48610, up 131 points. Rebounding from Tuesday losses, pointing to a slightly positive open. Micron Technology (MU) reports after the close — a key AI/memory chip update amid ongoing sector rotation away from big tech. Premarket movers include gains in Netflix (bets on media deals) and Amazon, alongside weakness in homebuilders like Lennar (disappointing Q1 guidance). Oil is rebounding following reports of President Trump's order for a blockade on Venezuelan tankers.

Volume beginning to contract as holiday week approaches. We do have a big jobs report which will dictate the next 3 days of trading. The jobs report is a major catalyst today, especially as markets price in Federal Reserve policy for 2026: Weaker-than-expected data (e.g., below 40K jobs or rising unemployment) → Could boost expectations for more aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2026, supporting stocks (particularly rate-sensitive sectors) but raising recession fears. Bonds rally

We have switched to the March contract. symbol YM 03-26. We start today with a narrow range. As of December 15, 2025, E-mini Dow Jones futures (YM) are trading modestly higher in pre-market, amid broader market rotation out of tech/AI stocks. If YM holds above the support test at 48840 expect a close near 49200. Trade the range not break outs. Dow firms are delivering: Q3 2025 aggregate EPS growth hit ~8%, driven by industrials (+12%) and healthcare (+10%), per analyst consen

The bullish environment continues with all systems green. Yes we are over bought but can remain so for a while. Buy pullbacks. Dow firms are delivering: Q3 2025 aggregate EPS growth hit ~8%, driven by industrials (+12%) and healthcare (+10%), per analyst consensus. Boeing's outlook for 2026 delivery ramps and positive free cash flow signals recovery, lifting shares 10% recently. Long-term forecasts project Dow earnings compounding at 7-9% annually through 2029, supporting ind

The market is consolidating after yesterday's big run up. The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures for December 2025 ( are trading near 48,100 as of 8:23 am reflecting a modest pullback from the previous close. This comes after a strong rally yesterday, where the underlying Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1.1% (or nearly 500 points) to close at 48,107, buoyed by the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut to a 3.5%-3.75% range. Volume stands at approximately 15,4

The game plan on Fed day is to grab 2 or 3 good trades then take an early lunch break. We trade only after waiting 3 minutes after the 2:00 PM announcement. Look for that 75% retracement as per our training. The U.S. central bank concludes its last policy-setting meeting this year later in the session, and is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points . Bets on a cut were furthered by some signs of cooling labor strength in recent months. But markets remained wa

Trend slightly lower this morning within the larger time frame uptrend. Next support to consider longs are 47710. Resistance begins at 77875 where you can look to short. Employment Outlook: Markets are on edge for tomorrow's (Dec. 10) nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show ~200K jobs added in November. Friday's ADP private payrolls surprise bolstered rate-cut bets but highlighted labor market softening, echoing broader cooling from October's ISM services employment index.

Very Narrow range as market awaits Fed decision on Wednesday 2:00 PM ET. First touch rule trades have a lower success percentage today as compared to stochastics. As of mid-morning trading on December 8, 2025, E-mini Dow Jones futures (YM Dec '25 contract) are edging higher, up +0.02% to 48,009.00, reflecting cautious optimism amid mixed global cues and anticipation for U.S. factory orders data. The contract settled Friday at 48,001.00, up +0.22% from Thursday's close, and re

We are starting with a very narrow range. As of mid-morning trading on December 5, 2025, E-mini Dow Jones futures (YM Dec '25 contract) are showing mild strength, up +0.11% to 47,967.00, after a flat open amid pre-PCE caution. The contract settled Thursday at 47,916.00, down slightly -0.07% from Wednesday's close, but remains within striking distance of the 52-week high at 48,528.00. Volume is light (~125K contracts vs. 5-day avg of 150K), typical for early December, with ope

Jobs Data Boosts Rate Cut Odds: Wednesday's ADP report revealed weaker-than-expected private hiring, while Thursday's initial jobless claims plunged to 191,000 (vs. 220,000 forecast), signaling labor market resilience without overheating. This mix has lifted December Fed cut probability to ~90%, providing a supportive backdrop but tempering aggressive risk-taking. A bit overbought. Let's buy pullbacks to support: First support is 47901 Second is 47818 MBA Mortgage Application

ADP report became a classic reversal. All the traders who were short get blasted out when the market spikes up with a 45 point move up. Immediately professional sellers fade the move and we crash 125 points. Seasonal and Policy Backdrop: December's historical +1.3% average S&P gain persists as a tailwind, but policy uncertainty (e.g., Trump's tariff threats and Fed chair speculation) caps enthusiasm. 70% of analysts talk breakout potential for a move near-term upside to Dow 4

Markets sold off yesterday. Even bitcoin not immune to selling pressure. Manufacturing continues weak. Tariff fears creeping back into the mix. The trading range right now is less than 200 points so that hints of 2 way trading. Widespread market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month remained intact following the data. There is about an 85% chance of a quarter-point reduction at the end of the Fed’s meeting on December 9-10, according to CME Fed

As of early premarket trading on December 1, 2025, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures are pointing to a modestly lower open for the first trading day of the month, reflecting a cautious shift after last week’s strong gains. The benchmark index closed Friday at 47,743, up 0.61% in a holiday-shortened session, capping a solid November rally despite overall monthly flatness. Upcoming Catalysts This Week: Economic data: ADP private payrolls (Wed), ISM services PMI (Thu),

Commodities futures and options trading on CME Group’s popular platform was halted on Friday due to a technical issue at data centers, the world’s largest exchange operator said in a social media post. Equity Index & FX Futures: Close at 12:15 PM CT Traders have raised the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed cut at the December 9-10 meeting to around 85% from roughly 40% earlier this month, a swing that has knocked the dollar lower and trimmed bond yields. The shift was driven by be

Have a Happy Thanksgiving all. Early close today. We get back into business on Friday morning. The reversal continues from 11/20/25. Good level to go long is 47180 and below that 47105. Good shorting level is 47309 and 47367. Fed Expectations: Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a December rate cut, boosting sentiment. Rumors of potential changes at the Fed (e.g., under a Trump administration) add intrigue but haven’t derailed the rally. Sector Highlights: Tech remains mi

Have a Happy Thanksgiving all. Early close today. We get back into business on Friday morning. The reversal continues from 11/20/25. Good level to go long is 47180 and below that 47105. Good shorting level is 47309 and 47367. Fed Expectations: Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a December rate cut, boosting sentiment. Rumors of potential changes at the Fed (e.g., under a Trump administration) add intrigue but haven’t derailed the rally. Sector Highlights: Tech remains mi

The latest quarterly reporting period is gradually coming to a close, but there are still a number of companies detailing their results, and Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL) will headline these after the bell on Wall Street. The company, whose customers including groups like CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) and Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI, almost doubled its annual profit growth target for the next four years in October, underscoring its big bet on surging demand for its servers which hel

December FOMC cut odds have plunged to ~41–47% (per CME FedWatch and FactSet), down sharply from 97% in mid-October, on hotter jobs/inflation data and a divided FOMC (per recent minutes: “strongly differing views,” with hawks pushing hold at 3.75–4%). Broader tone: Neutral to cautious — positive on resilient earnings/growth but wary of policy uncertainty. Holiday thinning may amplify moves; watch for spill-over from Eurozone data (e.g., ECB’s Elderson at 7:45 AM EST). Bias in